IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbp/nbpbik/v51y2020i1p1-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do CDS spread determinants affect the probability of default? A study on the EU banks

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Ortolano

    (G. d’Annunzio University, Department of Economic Studies)

  • Eliana Angelini

Abstract

The paper is an investigation of the principal variables that have affected the EU banks’ credit risk over the decade 2006–2016. In this context we adopt panel Tobit regressions in order to infer our object of analysis on the most significant CDS spread determinants illustrated by recent literature. In fact, the CDS spread should give a measure of credit risk, expressed by the probability of default. In accordance with the insertion of balance sheet, macroeconomic and market variables, we estimate the probability of default through a two-equation Merton model. Our results are analogous with the main trend of CDS spread determinants over time and contribute to continuing to consider the price of credit default swaps as a good indicator of banks’ creditworthiness.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Ortolano & Eliana Angelini, 2020. "Do CDS spread determinants affect the probability of default? A study on the EU banks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:51:y:2020:i:1:p:1-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2020/01/BIK_01_2020_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    2. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    3. Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    4. Marcel Fratzscher & Malte Rieth, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 745-775.
    5. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    7. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Muhammad Kashif & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Khurram Iftikhar, 2016. "Loan growth and bank solvency: evidence from the Pakistani banking sector," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Finnerty, John D. & Miller, Cameron D. & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2013. "The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2011-2030.
    10. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
    11. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2010. "The Credit Default Swap Market and the Settlement of Large Defaults," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 123, pages 91-120.
    12. Annika Westphal, 2015. "Systemic Risk in the European Union: A Network Approach to Banks’ Sovereign Debt Exposures," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-36, July.
    13. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    14. Azar Ghyasi, 2016. "Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit Risk of Banks in Developed and Developing Countries: Dynamic Panel Method," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1937-1944.
    15. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    16. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    17. Benbouzid, Nadia & Leonida, Leone & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2018. "The non-monotonic impact of bank size on their default swap spreads: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    18. Klaus Düllmann & Agnieszka Sosinska, 2007. "Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(3), pages 269-292, September.
    19. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    20. Wiem Ben Jabra & Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2017. "Determinants of European bank risk during financial crisis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1298420-129, January.
    21. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    22. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    23. Herve Alexandre & Catherine Refait-Alexandre & François Guillemin, 2015. "Disclosure, banks CDS spreads and the European sovereign crisis," Working Papers hal-01376916, HAL.
    24. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    25. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    26. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    27. Da, Zhi & Gao, Pengjie, 2010. "Clientele Change, Liquidity Shock, and the Return on Financially Distressed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 27-48, February.
    28. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    29. Giovanni Calice & Christos Ioannidis & Julian Williams, 2011. "Credit Derivatives and the Default Risk of Large Complex Financial Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3583, CESifo.
    30. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2010. "Decomposing European CDS Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-233.
    31. Dobromił Serwa, 2016. "Using Nonperforming Loan Ratios to Compute Loan Default Rates With Evidence From European Banking Sectors," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 1(1), pages 47-65, June.
    32. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    33. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    34. Switzer, Lorne N. & Tu, Qiao & Wang, Jun, 2018. "Corporate governance and default risk in financial firms over the post-financial crisis period: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 196-210.
    35. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    36. Laura Chiaramonte & Barbara Casu, 2013. "The determinants of bank CDS spreads: evidence from the financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 861-887, October.
    37. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    38. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2010. "Credit default swap and bond markets: which leads the other?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 161-167, July.
    40. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    41. Ulrich Erlenmaier & Hans Gersbach, 2014. "Default Correlations in the Merton Model," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1775-1809.
    42. Giulio Bottazzi & Alessandro De Sanctis & Fabio Vanni, 2016. "Non-performing loans, systemic risk and resilience in financial networks," LEM Papers Series 2016/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    43. William Greene, 2002. "The Behavior of the Fixed Effects Estimator in Nonlinear Models," Working Papers 02-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    44. Gila-Gourgoura, E. & Nikolaidou, E., 2017. "Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 10(1), pages 60-71, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    2. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    3. Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    4. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    6. Iftekhar Hasan & Liuling Liu & Gaiyan Zhang, 2016. "The Determinants of Global Bank Credit-Default-Swap Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 275-309, December.
    7. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    8. Haerri, Matthias & Morkoetter, Stefan & Westerfeld, Simone, 2014. "Sovereign Risk and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Default Swaps," Working Papers on Finance 1423, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Feb 2015.
    9. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè & Mario Toscano & Stefano Zedda, 2020. "The Role of Redenomination Risk in the Price Evolution of Italian Banks’ CDS Spreads," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2013. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin for European bank default predictability?," MPRA Paper 56782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    13. Benbouzid, Nadia & Leonida, Leone & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2018. "The non-monotonic impact of bank size on their default swap spreads: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    14. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    15. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    16. Lamia Bekkour & Thorsten Lehnert & Maria Chiara Amadori, 2011. "The Relative Informational Efficiency of Stocks, Options and Credit Default Swaps," LSF Research Working Paper Series 11-13, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    17. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    19. Xiaoqing Fu & Matthew C. Li & Philip Molyneux, 2021. "Credit default swap spreads: market conditions, firm performance, and the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2203-2225, May.
    20. Liu, Liuling & Zhang, Gaiyan & Fang, Yiwei, 2016. "Bank credit default swaps and deposit insurance around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 339-363.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability of default; banks; structural models; CDS spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:51:y:2020:i:1:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wojciech Burjanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.