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Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries

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  • Mario Cerrato
  • John Crosby
  • Minjoo Kim
  • Yang Zhao

Abstract

We document asymmetric and time-varying features of dependence between the credit risks of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in the UK banking industry using a CDS dataset. We model the dependence of CDS spreads using a dynamic asymmetric cop- ula. Comparing our model with traditional copula models, we find that they usually under- estimate the probability of joint (or conditional) default in the UK G-SIBs. Furthermore, we show that dynamics and asymmetries between CDS spreads are closely associated with the probabilities of joint (or conditional) default through the extensive regression analysis. Especially, our regression analysis provides a policy implication that copula correlation or tail dependence coefficients are able to be leading indicators for the systemic credit event.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2015_24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Bucio Pacheco & Luis Villanueva & Raúl de Jesús Gutiérrez, 2021. "Dependence in the Banking Sector of the United States and Mexico: A Copula Approach," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(TNEA), pages 1-23, Septiembr.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calibrated marginal default probability; probability of joint default; probability of conditional default; GAS-based GHST copula.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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