IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jfsres/v60y2021i1d10.1007_s10693-021-00351-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have Too-Big-to-Fail Expectations Diminished? Evidence from the European Overnight Interbank Market

Author

Listed:
  • Eero Tölö

    (Snellmaninaukio
    University of Helsinki)

  • Esa Jokivuolle

    (Snellmaninaukio)

  • Matti Viren

    (Snellmaninaukio
    University of Turku)

Abstract

Using the Eurosystem’s proprietary interbank loan data from June 2008–June 2020, we show that larger European banks have had a lower cost of overnight borrowing than smaller banks. The size premium remains significant after controlling for a large set of other factors but has decreased over time, especially in countries that were stricken by the Sovereign Debt Crisis. A difference-in-differences analysis suggests that the decline in the size premium is related to the actual bail-in events, not to the implementation dates of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive as such. This finding is robust to controlling for the effect of the ECB’s long-term refinancing operations. Overall, the results suggest that the regulatory move towards bail-in rather than bailout policies to deal with financially distressed banks has reduced the too-big-to-fail expectations concerning large banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Eero Tölö & Esa Jokivuolle & Matti Viren, 2021. "Have Too-Big-to-Fail Expectations Diminished? Evidence from the European Overnight Interbank Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 25-54, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:60:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10693-021-00351-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-021-00351-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10693-021-00351-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10693-021-00351-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Schäfer, Alexander, 2016. "Bail-in Expectations for European Banks: Actions Speak Louder than Words," CEPR Discussion Papers 11061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J., 2013. "Who said large banks don’t experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 559-585.
    3. Penas, Maria Fabiana & Unal, Haluk, 2004. "Gains in bank mergers: Evidence from the bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-179, October.
    4. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2016. "How to Measure the Unsecured Money Market: The Eurosystem’s Implementation and Validation Using TARGET2 Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 247-280, March.
    5. Elijah Brewer & Julapa Jagtiani, 2013. "How Much Did Banks Pay to Become Too-Big-To-Fail and to Become Systemically Important?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-35, February.
    6. Q. Farooq Akram & Casper Christophersen, 2017. "Pricing in the Norwegian Interbank Market – the Effects of Liquidity and Implicit Government Support," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(2), pages 165-204, April.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Harold James & Jean-Pierre Landau, 2016. "The Euro and the Battle of Ideas," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10828.
    8. Schäfer, Alexander & Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2016. "Bail-in expectations for European banks: Actions speak louder than words," ESRB Working Paper Series 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    10. Schäfer, Alexander & Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2016. "Bail-in Expectations for European Banks: Actions Speak Louder than Words," CEPR Discussion Papers 11061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2012. "Do Large Banks Have Lower Costs? New Estimates of Returns to Scale for U.S. Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 171-199, February.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    13. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    14. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    15. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    16. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    17. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-762, November.
    18. Ueda, Kenichi & Weder di Mauro, B., 2013. "Quantifying structural subsidy values for systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3830-3842.
    19. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    20. Stefan Jacewitz & Jonathan Pogach, 2018. "Deposit Rate Advantages at the Largest Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 1-35, February.
    21. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Deniz O Igan & Elsie Addo Awadzi & Marc C Dobler & Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Trade-offs in Bank Resolution," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/02, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Noss, Joseph & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon, 2012. "Financial Stability Paper No 15: The implicit subsidy of banks," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 15, Bank of England.
    24. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    25. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2017. "Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    28. Furfine, Craig H, 2001. "Banks as Monitors of Other Banks: Evidence from the Overnight Federal Funds Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 33-57, January.
    29. Richard Davies & Belinda Tracey, 2014. "Too Big to Be Efficient? The Impact of Implicit Subsidies on Estimates of Scale Economies for Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 219-253, February.
    30. Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Elsie Addo Awadzi & Mr. Marc C Dobler & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Trade-offs in Bank Resolution," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2018/002, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yixuan Duan & Min Guo & Yixuan Huang, 2022. "Leverage of Local State-Owned Enterprises, Implicit Contingent Liabilities of Government and Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Li, Shanshan & Gong, Di & Lu, Liping, 2024. "Bail-ins and market discipline: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 51-68.
    3. Li, Shanshan & Lu, Liping, 2023. "No-bailout event and local bank-government nexus in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Giulio Velliscig & Maurizio Polato & Josanco Floreani & Enrica Bolognesi, 2024. "The bail-in credibility: barking dogs seldom bite," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Viren, Matti, 2019. "Has banks' monitoring of other banks strengthened post-crisis? Evidence from the European overnight market," Research Discussion Papers 22/2019, Bank of Finland.
    3. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Viren, Matti, 2019. "Has banks' monitoring of other banks strengthened post-crisis? Evidence from the European overnight market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2019, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gündüz, Yalin, 2020. "The market impact of systemic risk capital surcharges," Discussion Papers 09/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2015. "Are too-big-to-fail banks history in Europe? Evidence from overnight interbank loans," Research Discussion Papers 29/2015, Bank of Finland.
    7. Javed Ahmed & Christopher Anderson & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2015. "Are the Borrowing Costs of Large Financial Firms Unusual?," Working Papers 15-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512151482 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2015. "Are too-big-to-fail banks history in Europe? Evidence from overnight interbank loans," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2015, Bank of Finland.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512151482 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zhu, Jiaqing & Li, Guangzhong & Li, Jie, 2017. "Merge to be too big to fail: A real option approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-353.
    12. Saroyan, Susanna, 2024. "Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Saroyan, Susanna, 2022. "Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: lessons from the e-MID interbank market," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-28, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    14. Robert McKeown, 2017. "Costs, Size And Returns To Scale Among Canadian And U.s. Commercial Banks," Working Paper 1382, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    15. Cummings, James R. & Guo, Yilian, 2020. "Do the Basel III capital reforms reduce the implicit subsidy of systemically important banks? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Green, Christopher & Bai, Ye & Murinde, Victor & Ngoka, Kethi & Maana, Isaya & Tiriongo, Samuel, 2016. "Overnight interbank markets and the determination of the interbank rate: A selective survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 149-161.
    17. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2015. "Fundamentals matter: Idiosyncratic shocks and interbank relations," Discussion Papers 44/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & Schultz, Alison & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2023. "Banks of a feather: The informational advantage of being alike," Discussion Papers 09/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2017. "Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    20. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    21. Mario Di Filippo & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2022. "Unsecured and Secured Funding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 651-662, March.
    22. Affinito, Massimiliano, 2012. "Do interbank customer relationships exist? And how did they function in the crisis? Learning from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3163-3184.
    23. Sarmiento, Miguel & Cely, Jorge & León, Carlos, 2017. "An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-128.
    24. Moutsianas, Konstantinos A. & Kosmidou, Kyriaki, 2016. "Bank earnings volatility in the UK: Does size matter? A comparison between commercial and investment banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 137-150.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overnight rates; Too-big-to-fail; Bail-in; Bailouts; Implicit government guarantee; Interbank borrowing costs; Bank recovery and resolution directive;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:60:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10693-021-00351-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.