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Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade

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  • Marcel Adenäuer
  • Clara Frezal
  • Thomas Chatzopoulos

Abstract

Extreme weather events can disrupt agricultural markets, but agricultural trade can help address subsequent food security concerns. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, this stochastic scenario analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between trade and food security in an environment where extreme weather events create uncertainty. The analysis suggests that trade integration makes countries less vulnerable to negative yield shocks by mitigating the risk of extreme food prices and by stabilising food availability. Although no model can capture the complex process and consequences of opening this sector to trade, it is clear that trade integration needs to be part of a wider coherent policy package to improve food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Adenäuer & Clara Frezal & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2023. "Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 198, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:198-en
    DOI: 10.1787/aa584482-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Food security; Partial equilibrium modelling; Resilience; Trade integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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