IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbdps/1999-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In this paper, we use a unique database on expected monetary conditions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of Expectations to study how policy signals are transmitted. In order to exploit the ordinal nature of the data, we run an ordered probit model where expected monetary conditions are a function of expected financial market variables and some "narrative" measures of monetary policy shocks. Although conclusions about the impact of policy shocks on public's expectations are somewhat tentative, the results could be interpreted as evidence of "divergence" between the Reserve Bank's and the public's view. Overall, the paper shows that surveyed expectations contain valuable information on the transmission of monetary policy. On average, respondents place more weight on the interest rate than on the exchange rate, and particularly so in sectors that are less exposed to international trade. Moreover, the relative weights vary substantially over time as different shocks hit the economy. We test for the presence of regime shifts in expectations due to changes to either the institutional framework or the implementation system. We find a significant effect of the introduction of the Reserve Bank Act in 1989.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Bonato & Robert St. Clair & Rainer Winkelmann, 1999. "Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/1999/g99-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John F. Boschen & Leonard O. Mills, 1991. "The effects of countercyclical monetary policy on money and interest rates: an evaluation of evidence from FOMC documents," Working Papers 91-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Andreas Fischer & Adrian Orr, 1994. "The Determinants and Properties of Monetary Conditions: Direct Survey Evidence from New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 150, OECD Publishing.
    3. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    4. Julie Huxford & Michael Reddell, 1996. "Implementing monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, December.
    5. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    6. Anonymous, 1999. "Monetary policy implementation: changes to operating procedures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    7. Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:42:y:1975:i:166:p:123-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Economics Department, 1996. "Summary indicators of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland.
    4. Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & Robin Loomes, 2002. "The unintended consequences of using an MCI as an operational monetary policy target in New Zealand: Suggestive evidence from rolling regressions," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 217-233.
    5. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayes, David G. & Razzak, W. A., 1998. "Transparency and accountability: Empirical models and policy making at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 377-394, July.
    2. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World Without Money," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 229-260, July.
    4. Antonello D’Agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, June.
    5. Ben Hunt & Adrian Orr, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: responding to unexpected exchange rate movements," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    7. Müller, Karsten, 2020. "German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Working Papers 23, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    8. Mark Schankerman, 1991. "Revisions of Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 05, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    9. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    10. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    13. Becchetti, Leonardo & Ciciretti, Rocco & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2015. "Corporate social responsibility, stakeholder risk, and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 297-309.
    14. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    15. Gaspar, Vitor & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2004. "Interest Rate Determination in the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    17. Isiklar, Gultekin, 2005. "On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 312-316, December.
    18. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança, 2012. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7," GEE Papers 0047, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Apr 2012.
    19. Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
    20. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    21. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.