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The unintended consequences of using an MCI as an operational monetary policy target in New Zealand: Suggestive evidence from rolling regressions

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  • Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht
  • Robin Loomes

Abstract

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) as an operational target for monetary policy from June 1997 to March 1999. We report estimates for New Zealand and Australia obtained from a series of 10-week rolling regressions that examine the relationship between short-term interest rates and the exchange rate. They suggest that, against its stated intentions, the MCI regime failed to improve the Bank's communication of its monetary policy stance to financial markets. Instead, it worsened economic performance by creating a systematic inverse relationship between short-term interest rates and the exchange rate. This contrasts with Australia's monetary policy at the time.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & Robin Loomes, 2002. "The unintended consequences of using an MCI as an operational monetary policy target in New Zealand: Suggestive evidence from rolling regressions," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 217-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:217-233
    DOI: 10.1080/00779950209544372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Leo Bonato & Robert St. Clair & Rainer Winkelmann, 1999. "Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Mehtap Kesriyeli & I.Ilhan Kocaker, 1999. "Monetary Conditions Index : A Monetary Policy Indicator For Turkey," Discussion Papers 9908, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Professor Lars E O Svensson, 2001. "Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, March.
    5. Kevin Clinton & Mark Zelmer, 1997. "Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets," Technical Reports 80, Bank of Canada.
    6. Alfred Guender, 2005. "On Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and the Construction of MCIs in the Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 189-207, April.
    7. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    3. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Nathan McLellan, 2003. "The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    5. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Mustafa Cagri Peker, 2017. "Inflation Target Credibility: Do the Financial Markets Find the Targets Believable?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1125-1147, December.
    7. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

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