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When is Democracy an Equilibrium?: Theory and Evidence from Colombia's La Violencia

Author

Listed:
  • Ragnar Torvik

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway)

  • James A. Robinson

    (Department of Government, Harvard University)

  • Mario Chacón

    (Yale University, Department of Political Scienc)

Abstract

The conventional wisdom in political science is that for a democracy to be consolidated, all groups must have a chance to attain power. If they do not then they will subvert democracy and choose to fight for power. In this paper we show that this wisdom is, if not totally incorrect, seriously incomplete. This is so because although the probability of winning an election increases with the size of a group, so does the probability of winning a fight. Thus in a situation where all groups have a high chance of winning an election, they may also have a high chance of winning a fight. Indeed, in a natural model, we show that democracy may never be consolidated in such a situation. Rather, democracy may only be stable when one group is dominant. We provide a test of a key aspect of our model using data from La Violencia, a political conflict in Colombia during the years 1946-1950 between the Liberal and Conservative parties. Consistent with our results, and contrary to the conventional wisdom, we show that fighting between the parties was more intense in municipalities where the support of the parties was more evenly balanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Ragnar Torvik & James A. Robinson & Mario Chacón, 2006. "When is Democracy an Equilibrium?: Theory and Evidence from Colombia's La Violencia," Working Paper Series 7106, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:7106
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    File URL: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/2006/7violencia5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Fernàndez, 2012. "Violencia y derechos de propiedad: El caso de La Violencia en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 112-147, December.
    2. Juan F Vargas, 2009. "Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war," Documentos de Trabajo 5282, Universidad del Rosario.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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