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Military Empowerment and Civilian Targeting in Civil War

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  • Juan F. Vargas

    (Royal Holloway College, University of London)

Abstract

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who fight over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians differ from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the effect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two effects that go in opposite directions. While a direct effect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect effect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant effect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombia s civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Vargas, 2009. "Military Empowerment and Civilian Targeting in Civil War," HiCN Working Papers 56, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks & Uih Ran Lee & Ralph Sundberg & Michael Spagat, 2011. "Global Comparison of Warring Groups in 2002–2007: Fatalities from Targeting Civilians vs. Fighting Battles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Leopoldo Fergussony Dario Romeroz Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "The environmental impact of civil conflict The deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia," Working Papers 201359, Latin American and Caribbean Environmental Economics Program, revised Dec 2013.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    4. Juan F. Vargas, 2012. "The persistent Colombian conflict: subnational analysis of the duration of violence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 203-223, April.
    5. Ben Oppenheim & Juan F. Vargas & Michael Weintraub, 2011. "Learning how (not) to fire a gun: combatant training and civilian victimization," Documentos de Trabajo 9168, Universidad del Rosario.
    6. Blanco Mariana & Vargas Juan F., 2014. "Can SMS Technology Improve Low Take-up of Social Benefits?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 61-81, January.
    7. Ahmed Mahmud & Juan Vargas, 2011. "Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-74, March.
    8. Rubio-Ramos, Melissa, 2024. "Trust, violence, and coca," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. German Orbegozo, 2021. "Consequences of violence against social leaders in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19320, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Andr�s Castañeda & Juan F. Vargas, 2012. "Sovereign risk and armed conflict: an event-study for colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 185-201, April.
    11. Uih Ran Lee, 2015. "Hysteresis of targeting civilians in armed conflicts," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 31-40, October.
    12. Melissa Rubio-Ramos, 2022. "Trust, Violence, and Coca," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 176, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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