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Hidden Debt Revelations

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Horn
  • David Mihalyi
  • Philipp Nickol
  • César Sosa-Padilla

Abstract

How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 countries and 53 years, the paper establishes three new stylized facts: (i) debt statistics are systematically under-reported; (ii) hidden debt accumulates in boom years and tends to be revealed in bad times, often during IMF programs and sovereign defaults; and (iii) in debt restructurings, higher hidden debt is associated with larger creditor losses. The novel data is used to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model with hidden debt accumulation and an endogenous monitoring decision that triggers revelations. Model simulations show that hidden debt has adverse effects on default risk, debt-carrying capacity and asset prices and is therefore welfare detrimental.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Horn & David Mihalyi & Philipp Nickol & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "Hidden Debt Revelations," NBER Working Papers 32947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32947
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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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