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Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies

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  • Julia Estefania‐Flores
  • Davide Furceri
  • Siddharth Kothari
  • Jonathan D. Ostry

Abstract

We compile a unique dataset of medium‐term public debt forecasts for an unbalanced panel of 174 countries, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) (for the period 1995–2020) and Economist Intelligence Unit (2007–2020) projections. We find that, on average, (i) there is a positive forecast error (FE) in the debt‐to‐gross domestic product (GDP) projections—that is, realized debt ratios are larger than forecasts; (ii) the FE increases with the projection horizon and is statistically significant and large—about 10% of GDP at the 5‐year horizon; (iii) the magnitude is similar between advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) and in EMDEs is present irrespective of recessions while for AEs is associated with surprise recessions in the forecast horizon; (iv) FEs are not statistically different between IMF program and non‐program cases; and (v) positive FEs are only partly attributable to optimism about growth or the fiscal balance. Looking at the correlates of FEs, we find that FEs are larger during periods of recession, elections, fiscal stress, and high uncertainty and in countries with more economic volatility and public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:3:p:685-714
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2942
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Sebastián Horn & David Mihaly & Philipp Nickol & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "Hidden Debt Revelations," Working Papers 338, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
    5. Cronin, David & McGowan, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries," Papers WP756, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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