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Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data

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Listed:
  • Harold L. Cole
  • Daniel Neuhann
  • Guillermo Ordoñez

Abstract

Using a novel data set containing all bids by all bidders for Mexican government bonds from 2001 to 2017, we demonstrate that asymmetric information about default risk is a key determinant of primary market bond yields. Empirically, large bidders do not pay more for bonds than the average bidder but their bids are accepted more frequently. We construct a model where investors may differ in wealth, risk aversion, market power and information, and find that only heterogeneous information can qualitatively account for these patterns. Moreover, asymmetric information about rare disasters can quantitatively match key moments of bids and yields, both within and across periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold L. Cole & Daniel Neuhann & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2021. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data," NBER Working Papers 28459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28459
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    Cited by:

    1. Dentler, Alexander & Rossi, Enzo, 2024. "Public debt management announcements: A welfare-theoretic analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Mariño, Eduardo Anthony G. & Marszalec, Daniel, 2023. "Strategic supply management and mechanism choice in government debt auctions: An empirical analysis from the Philippines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Simon Finster & Patrick Loiseau & Simon Mauras & Mathieu Molina & Bary Pradelski, 2024. "Equitable Auctions," Papers 2403.07799, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Mauricio Barbosa-Alves & Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises," Working Papers 805, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kursat Onder & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt Disclosure," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-004 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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