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Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

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  • Mr. Tamon Asonuma
  • Dirk Niepelt
  • Mr. Romain Ranciere

Abstract

Rejecting a common assumption in the sovereign debt literature, we document that creditor losses (“haircuts”) during sovereign restructuring episodes are asymmetric across debt instruments. We code a comprehensive dataset on instrument-specific haircuts for 28 debt restructurings with private creditors in 1999–2015 and find that haircuts on shorter-term debt are larger than those on debt of longer maturity. In a standard asset pricing model, we show that increasing short-run default risk in the run-up to a restructuring episode can explain the stylized fact. The data confirms the predicted relation between perceived default risk, bond prices, and haircuts by maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Dirk Niepelt & Mr. Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity," IMF Working Papers 2017/119, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/119
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    Cited by:

    1. Eidam, Frederik, 2020. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ESRB Working Paper Series 110, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou & Eriko Togo & Bert van Selm, 2020. "Belize’s 2016–17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring – Third Time Lucky?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(14), pages 47-67, December.
    3. Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
    4. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    5. Sergio Rebelo & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2022. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2719-2764, October.
    6. Sergio Rebelo & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2018. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 25031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2023. "Sovereign debt," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 17, pages 378-405, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    8. Bai, Yan & Kim, Seon Tae & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2017. "The payment schedule of sovereign debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 19-23.
    9. Gita Gopinath & Josefin Meyer & Carmen Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2024. "Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar than You Think," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2097, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Kris James Mitchener & Christoph Trebesch, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 8959, CESifo.
    11. Graf von Luckner, Clemens M. & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2024. "Sovereign haircuts: 200 years of creditor losses," Kiel Working Papers 2270, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Flavia Corneli, 2024. "Sovereign debt maturity structure and its costs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 262-297, February.
    14. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Shuhei Takahashi, 2023. "Debt Overhang and Lack of Lender's Commitment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2153-2185, December.
    15. Eidam, Frederik, 2018. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou & Gerardo Peraza & Kristine Vitola & Takahiro Tsuda, 2017. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize: Debt Sustainability and Financial Stability Aspects," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(8), pages 5-26, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; coupon rate; Sovereign Debt; Default; Debt Restructuring; Bond Prices; Haircuts; Maturity; Default Probability; recovery rate; bond price differential; price difference; longer-term bond; term structure; bond maturity; Asset prices; Bonds; Securities; Debt default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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