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The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates

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Listed:
  • Riley K. Acton
  • Wenjia Cao
  • Emily E. Cook
  • Scott A. Imberman
  • Michael F. Lovenheim

Abstract

Since the spring of 2021, nearly 700 colleges and universities in the U.S. have mandated that their students become vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus. We leverage rich data on colleges’ vaccination policies and semester start dates, along with a variety of county-level public health outcomes, to provide the first estimates of the effects of these mandates on the communities surrounding four-year, residential colleges. In event study specifications, we find that, over the first 13 weeks of the fall 2021 semester, college vaccine mandates reduced new COVID-19 cases by 339 per 100,000 county residents and new deaths by 5.4 per 100,000 residents, with an estimated value of lives saved between $9.7 million and $27.4 million per 100,000 residents. These figures suggest that the mandates reduced total US COVID-19 deaths in autumn 2021 by approximately 5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Riley K. Acton & Wenjia Cao & Emily E. Cook & Scott A. Imberman & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2022. "The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates," NBER Working Papers 30303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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