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Vax Populi: the Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism

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  • Giaccherini, Matilde
  • Kopinska, Joanna
  • Rovigatti, Gabriele

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of online vaccine skepticism on pediatric vaccine uptake, vaccine-preventable hospitalizations, and their related costs. We propose an instrumental variable strategy that leverages the complex structure of social networks. By matching Italian vaccine-related tweets for 2013-2018 with vaccine coverage and preventable hospitalizations data, we find that a 10pp increase in anti-vaccine sentiment causes a 0.43pp decrease in Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine coverage. This shift results in an additional 2.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents and an 11% increase in relevant healthcare expenses. Conversely, we find no statistically significant impact on vaccines not targeted by online misinformation (e.g., Hexavalent, Meningococcal, Pneumococcal). The results of a simulated model further suggest that informative campaigns are the most effective method to mitigate the effects of online misinformation and reduce polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Giaccherini, Matilde & Kopinska, Joanna & Rovigatti, Gabriele, 2024. "Vax Populi: the Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism," CEPR Discussion Papers 18788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18788
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    Cited by:

    1. Matilde Giaccherini & Joanna Kopinska, 2024. "Fallout and Fertility: Chernobyl’s Legacy and the Role of Compliance with Public Protection Measures," CESifo Working Paper Series 11260, CESifo.
    2. Gabriele Beccari & Matilde Giaccherini & Joanna Kopinska & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2023. "Refueling a Quiet Fire: Old Truthers and New Discontent in the Wake of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 10803, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Networks; Twitter; Vaccines; Polarization; Text analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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