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Gaps Between Official and Excess Covid-19 Mortality Measures: The Effects of Institutional Quality and Vaccinations

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Alex Cukierman
  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Sameer Nair-Desai
  • Weining Xin

Abstract

We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Alex Cukierman & Yothin Jinjarak & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin, 2022. "Gaps Between Official and Excess Covid-19 Mortality Measures: The Effects of Institutional Quality and Vaccinations," NBER Working Papers 29778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29778
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin W. Binns & Mi Kyung Lee & Thi Thuy Duong Doan & Andy Lee & Minh Pham & Yun Zhao, 2022. "COVID and Gender: A Narrative Review of the Asia-Pacific Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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