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Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Author

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  • Beyer,Robert Carl Michael
  • Hu,Yingyao
  • Yao,Jiaxiong

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights andquarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors innighttime light data across countries. The elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, withonly small deviations across country groups and different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjustedmeasure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice andaccountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification ofsubnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and populationdensity experienced larger declines in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer,Robert Carl Michael & Hu,Yingyao & Yao,Jiaxiong, 2022. "Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9893, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:lic:licosd:41920 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gibson, John & Olivia, Susan & Boe-Gibson, Geua & Li, Chao, 2021. "Which night lights data should we use in economics, and where?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Heger, Martin Philipp & Neumayer, Eric, 2019. "The impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on Aceh’s long-term economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Geua Boe‐Gibson, 2020. "Night Lights In Economics: Sources And Uses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 955-980, December.
    5. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    6. Chanda, Areendam & Kabiraj, Sujana, 2020. "Shedding light on regional growth and convergence in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Galdo, Virgilio, 2021. "Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. William Nordhaus & Xi Chen, 2015. "A sharper image? Estimates of the precision of nighttime lights as a proxy for economic statistics," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 217-246.
    9. Keola, Souknilanh & Andersson, Magnus & Hall, Ola, 2015. "Monitoring Economic Development from Space: Using Nighttime Light and Land Cover Data to Measure Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 322-334.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Cukierman, Alex & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nair-Desai, Sameer & Xin, Weining, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Xia, Xiqiang & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Dogan, Eyup, 2024. "Transition towards the sustainable development: unraveling the effects of mineral markets, Belt & Road Initiative, and the Paris Agreement on green economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Kim, Jihee & Kim, Kyoochul & Park, Sangyoon & Sun, Chang, 2023. "The economic costs of trade sanctions: Evidence from North Korea," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. McSharry, Patrick & Mawejje, Joseph, 2024. "Estimating urban GDP growth using nighttime lights and machine learning techniques in data poor environments: The case of South Sudan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory & Research; Economic Growth; International Trade and Trade Rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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