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Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation

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  • Arindrajit Dube

Abstract

The expiration of the temporary $600 boost to weekly UI benefits under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) led to a sharp, unprecedented, 98 percentage point reduction (on average) in the replacement rate during a time when employment was recovering during the Covid recession. Leveraging the considerable variation in this drop across states, I use a difference-in-differences event study design to estimate the macro employment effects. I find little impact of job gains from the benefit reduction, especially when I focus on groups (non-college graduates, and those from non-high-income households) that comprise of most UI recipients. The estimates rule out job gains implied by much of the micro UI duration elasticities from the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Arindrajit Dube, 2021. "Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation," NBER Working Papers 28470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Consolo, Agostino & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Paper Series 2703, European Central Bank.
    2. Harry J. Holzer & R. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2021. "Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Reduce Employment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations in June 2021," NBER Working Papers 29575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Joe Piacentini & Harley Frazis & Peter B. Meyer & Michael Schultz & Leo Sveikauskas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets and Inequality," Economic Working Papers 551, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2022. "A Social Insurance Perspective on Pandemic Fiscal Policy: Implications for Unemployment Insurance and Hazard Pay," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    5. Harry J. Holzer & Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2024. "Did pandemic unemployment benefits increase unemployment? Evidence from early state‐level expirations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 24-38, January.
    6. Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati, 2021. "Fiscal Relief during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no.2), pages 5-24, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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