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Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach

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  • John McLaren
  • Su Wang

Abstract

Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will lower transmission of COVID-19. We test that assumption, measuring the effect of aggregate workplace absence on US COVID deaths at the county level through August. Instrumenting with an index of how many local workers pre-pandemic can work from home, based on differences in county occupational mix, we find no effect of workplace absence until mid-May, then a sharply rising effect. By August, moving 10 percent of a county's workers from the workplace would lower deaths there by three quarters one month later.

Suggested Citation

  • John McLaren & Su Wang, 2020. "Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach," NBER Working Papers 28275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, January.
    2. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & Karel Mertens, 2023. "Work from Home before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 1-39, October.
    4. Joseph Benitez & Charles Courtemanche & Aaron Yelowitz, 2020. "Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19: Evidence from Six Large Cities," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 243-261, December.
    5. McLaren John, 2021. "Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots with Census Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 897-919, July.
    6. Cornelia Ilin & Sébastien E. Annan-Phan & Xiao Hui Tai & Shikhar Mehra & Solomon M. Hsiang & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2020. "Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales," NBER Working Papers 28120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John M. Barrios & Efraim Benmelech & Yael V. Hochberg & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2020. "Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Stay-at-Home Works to Fight Against COVID-19: International Evidence from Google Mobility Data," Working Papers 2008, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Victor Alipour & Oliver Falck & Andreas Peichl & Stefan Sauer, 2021. "Homeoffice-Potenzial weiterhin nicht ausgeschöpft," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(6), March.
    2. Shenoy, Ajay & Sharma, Bhavyaa & Xu, Guanghong & Kapoor, Rolly & Rho, Haedong Aiden & Sangha, Kinpritma, 2022. "God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Stay-at-Home Works to Fight Against COVID-19: International Evidence from Google Mobility Data," Working Papers 2008, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    4. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barrot, Jean-Noël & Bonelli, Maxime & Grassi, Basile & Sauvagnat, Julien, 2024. "Causal effects of closing businesses in a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Giorgio Gnecco & Sara Landi & Massimo Riccaboni, 2024. "The emergence of social soft skill needs in the post COVID-19 era," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 647-680, February.
    7. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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