IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales

Author

Listed:
  • Cornelia Ilin
  • Sébastien E. Annan-Phan
  • Xiao Hui Tai
  • Shikhar Mehra
  • Solomon M. Hsiang
  • Joshua E. Blumenstock

Abstract

Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 without excessively stifling economic activity. We show that publicly available data on human mobility — collected by Google, Facebook, and other providers — can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and forecast the spread of COVID-19. This approach relies on simple and transparent statistical models, and involves minimal assumptions about disease dynamics. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using local and regional data from China, France, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, as well as national data from 80 countries around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelia Ilin & Sébastien E. Annan-Phan & Xiao Hui Tai & Shikhar Mehra & Solomon M. Hsiang & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2020. "Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales," NBER Working Papers 28120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28120
    Note: DEV EEE EH PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28120.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2025. "The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Valerie Mueller & Glenn Sheriff & Corinna Keeler & Megan Jehn, 2021. "COVID‐19 Policy Modeling in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 24-38, March.
    3. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
    4. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John McLaren & Su Wang, 2020. "Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach," NBER Working Papers 28275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Makridis, Christos & McNab, Robert, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of COVID-19: Evidence from the States," Working Papers 10702, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    2. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    3. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Longmei Zhang, 2021. "The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 469-497, October.
    5. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    6. Fabian Stephany & Michael Dunn & Steven Sawyer & Vili Lehdonvirta, 2020. "Distancing Bonus Or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of Us Online Workers in Times of COVID‐19," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(3), pages 561-573, July.
    7. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:4:p:955-976 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    9. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2020. "The People’s bank of China’s response to the coronavirus pandemic: A quantitative assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 465-473.
    10. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Louis‐Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Derek Mikola & Taylor Wright, 2022. "The short‐term economic consequences of COVID‐19: Occupation tasks and mental health in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 214-247, February.
    12. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-107.
    13. Checo Ariadne & Grigoli Francesco & Mota Jose M., 2022. "Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 159-196, January.
    14. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2022. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32, February.
    15. Gros, Claudius & Gros, Daniel, 2022. "The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. Sabina Marchetti & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Giuseppe Ilardi & Giorgio Guzzetta & Piero Poletti & Patrizio Pezzotti & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Flavia Riccardo & Stefano, 2022. "An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    18. Mario J. Crucini & Oscar O'Flaherty, 2020. "Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union," NBER Working Papers 28182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jaqueline Hansen & Antonia Reinecke & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2021. "Health Expenditures and the Effectiveness of Covid-19 Prevention in International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 9069, CESifo.
    20. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor, 2021. "On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    21. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.