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Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News

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  • Timo Daehler
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

Abstract

Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014-2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional risks and then extrapolate the model-implied spreads for the period July 2019–June 2020. Intriguingly, the model initially predicts the realized spreads well but loses predictive accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal space and oil-revenue dependence primarily drive the differences between the realized and predicted sovereign spreads. Our augmented-factor model indicates that the cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate growth is positively associated with the CDS spreads. The evidence suggests that the epidemiological deterioration can lower confidence in the sovereign credit markets due to the prospects of prolonged lockdowns and a slower GDP growth recovery. Our results also hold for a single regression of daily spread changes during 2014-2020.

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  • Timo Daehler & Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2020. "Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News," NBER Working Papers 27903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27903
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Emerging markets

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    2. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Paula Barrios, 2022. "Subnational fiscal accounts under pressure: the effects of COVID-19 in a developing country," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 306, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Hao, Xiangchao & Sun, Qinru & Xie, Fang, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, consumption and sovereign credit risk: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
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    5. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Uddin, Mohammad Riaz & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Abadi, Nour, 2022. "Do intangible assets provide corporate resilience? New evidence from infectious disease pandemics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Pancotto, Livia & ap Gwilym, Owain & Molyneux, Philip, 2023. "Deal! Market reactions to the agreement on the EU Covid-19 recovery fund," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Sawsen Bouker & Faysal Mansouri, 2022. "Sovereign contagion risk measure across financial markets in the eurozone: a bivariate copulas and Markov Regime Switching ARMA based approaches," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 615-711, May.
    10. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the relative market efficiency and forecasting ability of credit derivative and equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2020. "The price of haircuts: private and official default," Development Working Papers 460, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 06 Feb 2020.
    12. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2024. "Oil price uncertainly and sovereign credit risk in GCC countries: fresh evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 457-482, May.
    13. Imdade Chitou & Gilles Dufrénot & Julien Esposito, 2021. "Linking Covid-19 epidemic and emerging market OAS: Evidence using dynamic copulas and Pareto distributions," Working Papers halshs-03297198, HAL.
    14. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.
    15. Esma Nur Cinicioglu & Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & A. Özlem Önder & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu, 2024. "The Changing Behavior of the European Credit Default Swap Spreads During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Bayesian Network Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1254, March.
    16. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    17. Cottafava, Dario & Gastaldo, Michele & Quatraro, Francesco & Santhiá, Cristina, 2022. "Modeling economic losses and greenhouse gas emissions reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic: Past, present, and future scenarios for Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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