IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-03297198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Linking Covid-19 epidemic and emerging market OAS: Evidence using dynamic copulas and Pareto distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Imdade Chitou

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Louis Bachelier)

  • Julien Esposito

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper investigates the dependence of the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for several ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Indexes to the outbreaks of the Covid-19 viral pandemics between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021. We investigate whether the number of new cases, the reproduction rate, death rate and stringency policies have resulted in an increase/decrease in the spreads. We study the bivariate distributions of epidemiological indicators and spreads to investigate their concordance using dynamic copula analysis and estimate the Kendall rankcorrelation coefficient. We also investigate the effect of the epidemiological variables on the extreme values of the spreads by fitting a tail index derived from a Pareto type I distribution. We highlight the existence of correlations, robust to the type of copulas used (Clayton or Gumbel). Moreover, we show that the epidemiological variables explain well the extreme values of the spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Imdade Chitou & Gilles Dufrénot & Julien Esposito, 2021. "Linking Covid-19 epidemic and emerging market OAS: Evidence using dynamic copulas and Pareto distributions," Working Papers halshs-03297198, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03297198
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03297198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03297198/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberlein & Madan & Pistorius & Yor, 2013. "A Simple Stochastic Rate Model for Rate Equity Hybrid Products," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 461-488, November.
    2. Mahyar Kargar & Benjamin Lester & David Lindsay & Shuo Liu & Pierre-Olivier Weill & Diego Zúñiga, 2021. "Corporate Bond Liquidity during the COVID-19 Crisis [The day coronavirus nearly broke the financial markets]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5352-5401.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2020. "How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2029, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Kawai, Reiichiro & Takeuchi, Atsushi, 2010. "Sensitivity analysis for averaged asset price dynamics with gamma processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 42-49, January.
    5. Philipson, Tomas, 2000. "Economic epidemiology and infectious diseases," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 33, pages 1761-1799, Elsevier.
    6. Sirio Aramonte & Fernando Avalos, 2020. "Corporate credit markets after the initial pandemic shock," BIS Bulletins 26, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Omair Haroon & Syed Aun R. Rizvi, 2020. "Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquidity – An Inquiry into Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2151-2161, August.
    9. Mahdi Ebsim & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Julian Kozlowski, 2020. "Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises," Working Papers 2020-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 22 Feb 2024.
    10. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2024. "The Fed takes on corporate credit risk: An analysis of the efficacy of the SMCCF," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Mariya Gubareva, 2021. "Covid-19 and high-yield emerging market bonds: insights for liquidity risk management," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 193-212, September.
    12. Robert Savickas, 2002. "A Simple Option‐Pricing Formula," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 207-226, May.
    13. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Dancausa,Fernando & O'Reilly Gurhy,Bryan & Nie,Owen, 2020. "COVID-19 and EMDE Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities : A Simple Stress-Test Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9324, The World Bank.
    14. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Daehler, Timo B. & Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2021. "Emerging markets sovereign CDS spreads during COVID-19: Economics versus epidemiology news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Czech, Robert & Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2021. "Dash for Dollars," CEPR Discussion Papers 16415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Hao, Xiangchao & Sun, Qinru & Xie, Fang, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, consumption and sovereign credit risk: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Cohen, Lior & Furman, Itai, 2024. "The impact of the ECB's PEPP project on the COVID-19-Induced crisis in the corporate bond market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 235.
    4. Abudy, Menachem (Meni) & Shust, Efrat, 2023. "Does market design contribute to market stability? Indications from a corporate bond exchange during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Zaghini, Andrea, 2024. "Unconventional green," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Chen, Zhuo & Li, Pengfei & Liao, Li & Liu, Lu & Wang, Zhengwei, 2024. "Assessing and addressing the coronavirus-induced economic crisis: Evidence from 1.5 billion sales invoices," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Patricia C. Mosser, 2020. "Central bank responses to COVID-19," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 191-201, October.
    8. Cimon, David A. & Walton, Adrian, 2024. "Central bank liquidity facilities and market making," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. O'Hara, Maureen & Zhou, Xing (Alex), 2021. "Anatomy of a liquidity crisis: Corporate bonds in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 46-68.
    11. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2021. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response [Funding value adjustments]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5309-5351.
    12. Simone Letta & Pasquale Mirante, 2023. "Investigating the determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 36, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2024. "The Fed takes on corporate credit risk: An analysis of the efficacy of the SMCCF," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Farooque, Omar Al & Baghdadi, Ghasan & Trinh, Hai Hong & Khandaker, Sarod, 2023. "Stock liquidity during COVID-19 crisis: A cross-country analysis of developed and emerging economies, and economic policy uncertainty," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    17. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Jacob, Joshy & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and debt financing by firms: Unravelling the channels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Haque, Sharjil & Varghese, Richard, 2023. "Firms’ rollover risk, capital structure and unequal exposure to aggregate shocks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Manel, Youssef & Riaz, Yasir & Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between emerging markets and US debt throughout the pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Fan Jiang & Xin Zang & Jingping Yang, 2020. "Asymptotic expansion for the transition densities of stochastic differential equations driven by the gamma processes," Papers 2003.06218, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; corporate spreads; pandemics; emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03297198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.