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Prices and Promotions in U.S. Retail Markets: Evidence from Big Data

Author

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  • Günter J. Hitsch
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Xiliang Lin

Abstract

We document the degree of price dispersion and the similarities as well as differences in pricing and promotion strategies across stores in the U.S. retail (grocery) industry. Our analysis is based on “big data” that allow us to draw general conclusions based on the prices for close to 50,000 products (UPC’s) in 17,184 stores that belong to 81 different retail chains. Both at the national and local market level we find a substantial degree of price dispersion for UPC’s and brands at a given moment in time. We document that both persistent base price differences across stores and price promotions contribute to the overall price variance, and we provide a decomposition of the price variance into base price and promotion components. There is substantial heterogeneity in the degree of price dispersion across products. Some of this heterogeneity can be explained by the degree of product penetration (adoption by households) and the number of retail chains that carry a product at the market level. Prices and promotions are more homogenous at the retail chain than at the market level. In particular, within local markets, prices and promotions are substantially more similar within stores that belong to the same chain than across stores that belong to different chains. Furthermore, the incidence of price promotions is strongly coordinated within retail chains, both at the local market level and nationally. We present evidence, based on store-level demand estimates for 2,000 brands, that price elasticities and promotion effects at the local market level are substantially more similar within stores that belong to the same chain than across stores belonging to different retailers. Moreover, we find that retailers can not easily distinguish, in a statistical sense, among the price elasticities and promotion effects across stores using retailer-level data. Hence, the limited level of price discrimination across stores by retail chains likely reflects demand similarity and the inability to distinguish demand across the stores in a local market.

Suggested Citation

  • Günter J. Hitsch & Ali Hortaçsu & Xiliang Lin, 2019. "Prices and Promotions in U.S. Retail Markets: Evidence from Big Data," NBER Working Papers 26306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Adams & Kevin R. Williams, 2019. "Zone Pricing in Retail Oligopoly," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 124-156, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Hindriks & Leonardo Madio & Valerio Serse, 2021. "Promotion Ban and Heterogeneity in Retail Prices during the Great Lockdown," CESifo Working Paper Series 9074, CESifo.
    2. Ziwei Cong & Jia Liu & Puneet Manchanda, 2021. "The Role of "Live" in Livestreaming Markets: Evidence Using Orthogonal Random Forest," Papers 2107.01629, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    3. Klaczko Iael, 2023. "Price dispersion in Uruguay," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4662, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    4. Francisca Sara-Zaror, 2024. "Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Argentesi, Elena & Buccirossi, Paolo & Cervone, Roberto & Duso, Tomaso & Marrazzo, Alessia, 2021. "The effect of mergers on variety in grocery retailing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Ralph Siebert & Michael J. Seiler, 2020. "Why Do Buyers Pay Different Prices for Comparable Products? Evidence from the Housing Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 8337, CESifo.
    7. Sebastian Linde & Ralph Siebert, 2021. "Exploring the Heterogeneous Effects of State Price Transparency Laws on Charge Prices, Negotiated Prices, and Operating Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9348, CESifo.
    8. N. M. Rozanova, 2021. "Methodological Issues of Modern Competition Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 492-498, September.
    9. Avery Haviv, 2022. "Consumer Search, Price Promotions, and Counter-Cyclic Pricing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 294-314, March.
    10. Bradley Shapiro & Günter J. Hitsch & Anna Tuchman, 2020. "Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects," NBER Working Papers 27684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Brett Hollenbeck & Renato Zaterka Giroldo, 2022. "Winning Big: Scale and Success in Retail Entrepreneurship," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 271-293, March.
    12. Jessie Handbury, 2021. "Are Poor Cities Cheap for Everyone? Non‐Homotheticity and the Cost of Living Across U.S. Cities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2679-2715, November.
    13. Dong, Xiao, 2022. "Lack of local pricing response in national retail chains during large and localized demand peaks: Evidence from college move-ins and instant noodles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Richards, Timothy J. & Chenarides, Lauren & Çakir, Metin, 2022. "Dollar Store Entry," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322100, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ali Goli & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2021. "What Happens When a Retailer Drops a Product Category? Investigating the Consequences of Ending Tobacco Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(6), pages 1169-1198, November.
    16. Nicoletta Berardi & Federico Ravenna & Mario Samano, 2020. "Everyday Regular Prices," Working papers 746, Banque de France.

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    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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