IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?

Author

Listed:
  • David Altig
  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • Darryl R. Koehler
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Michael Leiseca
  • Ellyn Terry
  • Yifan Ye

Abstract

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating all major federal and state fiscal policies. We find that the average percentage increase in remaining lifetime spending under the TCJA is 1.6 percent in red states versus 1.3 percent in blue states. Among the richest 10 percent of households, this differential is larger. Rich households in red states enjoyed a 2.0 percent increase compared to a 1.2 percent increase among the rich in blue-state households. This gap is driven almost entirely by the limitation on the SALT deduction. Excluding the SALT limitation from the TCJA results in a spending gain of 2.6 percent for rich red-state households compared to 2.7 percent for rich blue-state households.

Suggested Citation

  • David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Patrick C. Higgins & Darryl R. Koehler & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Michael Leiseca & Ellyn Terry & Yifan Ye, 2019. "Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?," NBER Working Papers 25770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25770
    Note: PE POL
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25770.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin S & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1987. "The Effect of Federal Tax Deductibility on State and Local Taxes and Spending," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 710-736, August.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Darryl Koehler & Manni Yu, 2017. "Is Uncle Sam Inducing the Elderly to Retire?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    3. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Victor Yifan Ye, 2017. "Simulating Business Cash Flow Taxation," NBER Working Papers 23675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Elias Ilin & Victor Ye, 2020. "The Marginal Net Taxation of Americans’ Labor Supply," NBER Working Papers 27164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Altig & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2022. "How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving on the Table?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 37, pages 135-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thi, Hoang Ha Nguyen & Weichenrieder, Alfons J., 2021. "C and S corporation banks: Did Trump's tax reform lead to differential effects?," SAFE Working Paper Series 328, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Erin Eidschun & Laurence Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2024. "Inflation's Fiscal Impact on American Households," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Siraj G. Bawa & Nam T. Vu, 2020. "International effects of corporate tax cuts on income distribution," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 1164-1190, November.
    6. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2021. "Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 649-669, September.
    7. David E. Altig & Elias Ilin & Alexander Ruder & Ellyn Terry, 2020. "Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway," FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper 2020-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2021. "Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Anthony Webb, 2020. "The Illusory Benefits of Working Longer on Financial Preparedness for Retirement," SCEPA working paper series. 2020-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Roberto Dell’Anno & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2013. "A Behavioral Local Public Finance Perspective on the Renter’s Illusion Hypothesis," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1303, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Wrobel, Marian Vaillant, 1998. "Can state taxes redistribute income?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 369-396, June.
    4. Christian Kelders & Marko Koethenbuerger, 2010. "Tax incentives in fiscal federalism: an integrated perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 683-703, May.
    5. Judd, Kenneth L., 1999. "Optimal taxation and spending in general competitive growth models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Myungsoon Hur, 2001. "The Impact of Debt Financing on the Level of Capital Spending," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 91-101, December.
    7. Poterba, James M., 1995. "Capital budgets, borrowing rules, and state capital spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, February.
    8. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1996. "Fundamental Tax Reform and State and Local Governments," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(3), pages 475-486, September.
    9. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
    10. Alberto Sole Olle, 1998. "The effects of tax deductibility on the mix of property taxes and use charges: an empirical analysis of the spanish case," Working Papers in Economics 41, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    11. Elias Ilin & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & M. Melinda Pitts, 2022. "Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Danuše Nerudová & Veronika Solilová & Lucie Formanová & Marek Litzman, 2021. "Návrh progresivního zdanění právnických osob v České republice a jeho zhodnocení [Proposal for Progressive Taxation of Corporate Entities in the Czech Republic and Its Evaluation]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 145-169.
    13. Robert Tannenwald, 1990. "Taking charge: should New England increase its reliance on user charges?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 56-74.
    14. Keuschnigg, Christian & Johs, Julian & Stevens, Jacob, 2021. "Consolidating the Covid Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 16846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Loeb, Susanna & Socias, Miguel, 2004. "Federal contributions to high-income school districts: the use of tax deductions for funding K-12 education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 85-94, February.
    16. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Harvey S . Rosen, 1988. "Tax Deductibility and Municipal Budget Structure," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Federalism: Quantitative Studies, pages 107-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Andrew Reschovsky & Howard Chernick, 1989. "Federal Tex Reform and the Taxation of Urban Residents," Public Finance Review, , vol. 17(2), pages 123-157, April.
    18. Bond, Eric W. & Gresik, Thomas A., 2020. "Unilateral tax reform: Border adjusted taxes, cash flow taxes, and transfer pricing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Robert P. Inman, 1989. "The Local Decision to Tax: Evidence from Large U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 2921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Eric W. Bond & Thomas A. Gresik, 2023. "On the incentive compatibility of universal adoption of destination-based cash flow taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1576-1600, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.