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How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving on the Table?

In: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 37

Author

Listed:
  • David Altig
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Victor Yifan Ye

Abstract

Americans are notoriously bad savers. Large numbers are reaching old age too poor to finance retirements that could last longer than they worked. This study uses the 2018 American Community Survey to impute retirement ages for 2019 Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) respondents. Next, we run the SCF respondents through the Fiscal Analyzer (TFA) to measure the size and distribution of forgone lifetime Social Security benefits. TFA is a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing research tool that incorporates Social Security and all other major federal and state tax and benefit policies. The program can optimize lifetime Social Security choices. We find that virtually all American workers age 45 to 62 should wait beyond age 65 to collect. More than 90 percent should wait till age 70. Only 10.2 percent appear to do so. The median loss for this age group in the present value of household lifetime discretionary spending is $182,370. Optimizing would produce a 10.4 percent increase in typical workers’ lifetime spending. For one in four, the lifetime spending gain exceeds 17 percent. For one in ten, the gain exceeds 26 percent. Among the poorest fifth of 45 to 62 year-olds, the median lifetime spending increase is 15.9 percent, with one in four gaining more than 27.4 percent.
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Suggested Citation

  • David Altig & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2022. "How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving on the Table?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 37, pages 135-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14733
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Altig & Alan Auerbach & Patrick Higgins & Darryl Koehler & Laurence Kotlikoff & Ellyn Terry & Victor Ye, 2020. "Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue-State Voters?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(4), pages 1087-1108, December.
    2. Ellis, Charles D. & Munnell, Alicia H. & Eschtruth, Andrew D., 2015. "Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190218898.
    3. Elias Ilin & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Melinda Pitts, 2022. "Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax," NBER Working Papers 30159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bronshtein, Gila & Scott, Jason & Shoven, John B. & Slavov, Sita Nataraj, 2020. "Leaving big money on the table: Arbitrage opportunities in delaying social security," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 261-272.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Darryl Koehler & Manni Yu, 2017. "Is Uncle Sam Inducing the Elderly to Retire?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    6. Jesse Bricker & Alice Henriques & Jacob Krimmel & John Sabelhaus, 2016. "Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 261-331.
    7. Lisa J. Dettling & Sebastian Devlin-Foltz & Jacob Krimmel & Sarah Pack & Jeffrey P. Thompson, 2015. "Comparing Micro and Macro Sources for Household Accounts in the United States: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Erin Eidschun & Laurence Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2024. "Inflation's Fiscal Impact on American Households," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Teresa Ghilarducci & Karthik Manickam, 2023. "A Critical Survey of Pension Provision And Pension Reform," SCEPA working paper series. 2023-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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