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Market Thickness and the Impact of Unemployment on Housing Market Outcomes

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  • Li Gan
  • Qinghua Zhang

Abstract

This paper develops a search-matching model to study the impact of the unemployment rate on the housing market in the presence of the thick market effect. We estimate the structural model using Texas city-level data that covers three years, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Our structural estimation helps identify the channel through which the thick market effect amplifies the impact of the unemployment rate on housing market outcomes. Specifically, we show that an increase in the unemployment generates a thinner market, which leads to poorer matching quality on average. As a consequence, prices and the transaction volume both decline more than in the absence of the thick market effect. Simulations based on our estimates predict that a three percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the price by 7.74% and reduces the transaction volume by 9.98%. In addition, larger cities with more population experience milder changes in prices in response to changes in the unemployment rate compared to smaller cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Gan & Qinghua Zhang, 2013. "Market Thickness and the Impact of Unemployment on Housing Market Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 19564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19564
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michael J. Osei & John V. Winters, 2019. "Labor Demand Shocks and Housing Prices Across the United States: Does One Size Fit All?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 33(3), pages 212-219, August.
    3. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Cooper, Daniel, 2014. "The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 10041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Siu Kei Wong & Kuang Kuang Deng & Ka Shing Cheung, 2024. "Starter Home Premium and Housing Affordability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 52-73, January.
    5. Rehman, Saira & Moutinho, Nuno & Alves, Jorge, 2020. "The Relationship Between Portuguese Economy Indicators And Housing Prices," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 8(4), pages 270-286.
    6. Xinyi Lyu & Tiaojun Xiao & Jingquan Li, 2024. "Evolution of direct network effects: A perspective of market thickness of an online freight platform," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Haydar Karadağ, 2021. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bankalar Tarafından Verilen Konut Kredileri, Konut Satışları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki (2010:Q1-2020:Q3)," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 403-422, June.
    8. Álvarez-Román, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel, 2021. "Are house prices overvalued in Spain? A regional approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Sofia Vale & Felipa de Mello-Sampayo, 2021. "Effect of Hierarchical Parish System on Portuguese Housing Rents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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