IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2550.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Strikes and Wages: A Test of a Signalling Model

Author

Listed:
  • David Card

Abstract

This paper describes a simple model of labor disputes based on the hypothesis that unions use strikes to infer the level of profitability of the firm. The implications of the model are then tested using data on wage outcomes, strike probabilities, and strike durations for a large sample of collective bargaining agreements. Negotiated wages are found to depend negatively on regional unemployment rates and positively on industry-specific selling prices. Contrary to the basic premise of the model, however, there is no evidence of a systematic relation between wages and strike outcomes. Increases in unemployment are found to decrease the probability of strikes, while increases in industry selling prices increase the probability of disputes. Strike durations are only weakly related to unemployment and industry prices, but are negatively correlated with industry output.

Suggested Citation

  • David Card, 1988. "Strikes and Wages: A Test of a Signalling Model," NBER Working Papers 2550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2550
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2550.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheena McConnell, "undated". "Cyclical Fluctuations in Strike Activity," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ae5f651b2b044d41b9c54afe4, Mathematica Policy Research.
    2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    3. Sheena McConnell, 1987. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Strike Activity," Working Papers 595, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Hayes, Beth, 1984. "Unions and Strikes with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-83, January.
    5. Stephen R. G. Jones, 1988. "The Relationship Between Unemployment Spells and Reservation Wages as a Test of Search Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(4), pages 741-765.
    6. Gunderson, Morley & Kervin, John & Reid, Frank, 1986. "Logit Estimates of Strike Incidence from Canadian Contract Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 257-276, April.
    7. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    8. Christofides, Louis N & Swidinsky, Robert & Wilton, David A, 1980. "A Microeconometric Analysis of Spillovers within the Canadian Wage Determination Process," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 213-221, May.
    9. Oliver Hart, 1986. "Bargaining and Strikes," Working papers 423, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    10. David Card, 1983. "Cost-of-Living Escalators in Major Union Contracts," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 37(1), pages 34-48, October.
    11. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1983. "Sequential Bargaining with Incomplete Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(2), pages 221-247.
    12. Sheena McConnell, 1987. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Strike Activity," Working Papers 595, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    13. Ausubel, Lawrence M. & Cramton, Peter & Deneckere, Raymond J., 2002. "Bargaining with incomplete information," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 50, pages 1897-1945, Elsevier.
    14. Riddell, William Craig, 1979. "The Empirical Foundations of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Canadian Wage Contract Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 1-24, January.
    15. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September.
    16. repec:fth:prinin:215 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Card, David, 1990. "Unexpected Inflation, Real Wages, and Employment Determination in Union Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 669-688, September.
    2. Cramton, Peter C & Tracy, Joseph S, 1992. "Strikes and Holdouts in Wage Bargaining: Theory and Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 100-121, March.
    3. John M. Abowd & Thomas Lemieux, 1991. "The Effects of International Competition on Collective Bargaining Outcomes: A Comparison of the United States and Canada," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 343-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fernandez, Raquel & Glazer, Jacob, 1991. "Striking for a Bargain between Two Completely Informed Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 240-252, March.
    5. Michael Huberman & Denise Young, 1995. "What Did Unions Do... An Analysis of Canadian Strike Data, 1901-14," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-17, CIRANO.
    6. Cramton, Peter C & Tracy, Joseph S, 1994. "Wage Bargaining with Time-Varying Threats," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 594-617, October.
    7. Jellal, Mohamed, 2014. "Theory of civil war under asymmetric information," MPRA Paper 57600, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph S. Tracy, 1988. "Testing Strategic Bargaining Models Using Stock Market Data," NBER Working Papers 2754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peter Cramton & Morley Gunderson & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "The Effect Of Collective Bargaining Legislation On Strikes And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 475-487, August.
    3. Kuhn, Peter & Gu, Wulong, 1999. "Learning in Sequential Wage Negotiations: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(1), pages 109-140, January.
    4. Belloc, Filippo, 2021. "Industrial actions and firing regimes: How deregulating worker “Exit” reshapes worker “Voice”," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 251-264.
    5. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
    6. Kennan, John, 1995. "Repeated contract negotiations with private information," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-472, November.
    7. Card, David, 1988. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 147-176, April.
    8. Filippo Belloc, 2019. "Labor Conflict at the Workplace: Do Dismissal Regulations Matter?," Department of Economics University of Siena 806, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. Gary-Bobo, Robert J. & Jaaidane, Touria, 2014. "Strikes and slowdown in a theory of relational contracts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-116.
    10. Peter C. Cramton, 1992. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining with Two-Sided Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 205-225.
    11. Alvarez, Javier & Arellano, Manuel, 2022. "Robust likelihood estimation of dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 21-61.
    12. Kuhn, Peter & Gu, Wulong, 1998. "Centralization and strikes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 243-265, September.
    13. Jörg Breitung & Michael Lechner, 1996. "Estimation de modèles non linéaires sur données de panel par la méthode des moments généralisés," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 126(5), pages 191-203.
    14. Koen Jochmans, 2020. "Testing for correlation in error‐component models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 860-878, November.
    15. Georges Bresson & Jean-Michel Etienne & Pierre Mohnen, 2011. "How important is innovation? A Bayesian factor-augmented productivity model on panel data," TEPP Working Paper 2011-06, TEPP.
    16. Gary-Bobo, Robert J. & Jaaidane, Touria, 2008. "Strikes as the 'Tip of the Iceberg' in a Theory of Firm-Union Cooperation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
    18. Bluhm, Richard & Crombrugghe, Denis de & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Explaining the dynamics of stagnation: An empirical examination of the North, Wallis and Weingast approach," MERIT Working Papers 2012-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Daughety, Andrew F. & Reinganum, Jennifer F., 1994. "Settlement negotiations with two-sided asymmetric information: Model duality, information distribution, and efficiency," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 283-298, September.
    20. Han, Chirok & Orea, Luis & Schmidt, Peter, 2005. "Estimation of a panel data model with parametric temporal variation in individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 241-267, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.