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Deterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border Apprehensions

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  • Samuel Bazzi
  • Sarah Burns
  • Gordon Hanson
  • Bryan Roberts
  • John Whitley

Abstract

Over 2008 to 2012, the U.S. Border Patrol enacted new sanctions on migrants apprehended attempting to enter the U.S. illegally. Using administrative records on apprehensions of Mexican nationals that include fingerprint-based IDs and other details, we detect if an apprehended migrant is subject to penalties and if he is later re-apprehended. Exploiting plausibly random variation in the roll-out of sanctions, we estimate econometrically that exposure to penalties reduced the 18-month re-apprehension rate for males by 4.6 to 6.1 percentage points off of a baseline rate of 24.2%. These magnitudes imply that sanctions can account for 28 to 44 percent of the observed decline in recidivism in apprehensions. Further results suggest that the drop in recidivism was associated with a reduction in attempted illegal entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Bazzi & Sarah Burns & Gordon Hanson & Bryan Roberts & John Whitley, 2018. "Deterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border Apprehensions," NBER Working Papers 25100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25100
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Shu & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2024. "Social identity and labor market outcomes of internal migrant workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Pia Orrenius, 2019. "Enforcement and illegal migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-81, November.
    3. Simone Bertoli & Morgane Laouenan & Jérôme Valette, 2022. "Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03818735, HAL.
    4. Hale Utar, 2018. "Firms and Labor in Times of Violence: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War," CESifo Working Paper Series 7345, CESifo.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
    6. Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 205-243.
    7. Beine, Michel & Bierlaire, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 14090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Albuquerque Sant'Anna, André & Costa, Lucas, 2021. "Environmental regulation and bail outs under weak state capacity: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon11The authors gratefully acknowledge Antonio Ambrózio, Juliano Assunção, Arthur Bragança, Filipe ," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    9. Treb Allen & Cauê de Castro Dobbin & Melanie Morten, 2018. "Border Walls," NBER Working Papers 25267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Heepyung Cho, 2022. "Border enforcement and the sorting and commuting patterns of Hispanics," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 938-960, September.
    11. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Kovak, Brian K. & Lessem, Rebecca, 2020. "How do U.S. visa policies affect unauthorized immigration?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 92-108.
    13. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2019. "Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?," Working Papers 1905, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Hammoud-Gallego, Omar, 2024. "The short-term effects of visa restrictions on migrants’ legal status and well-being: A difference-in-differences approach on Venezuelan displacement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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