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The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates

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  • Dan A. Black
  • Yu-Chieh Hsu
  • Seth G. Sanders
  • Lynne Steuerle Schofield
  • Lowell J. Taylor

Abstract

We examine inferences about old age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages, (2) the black-white mortality crossover, and (3) the relatively low rate of old age mortality among Hispanics—often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men (NLS-OM) matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists, and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a dataset known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al., 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan A. Black & Yu-Chieh Hsu & Seth G. Sanders & Lynne Steuerle Schofield & Lowell J. Taylor, 2017. "The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates," NBER Working Papers 23574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23574
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    Cited by:

    1. Dustin C. Brown & Joseph T. Lariscy & Lucie Kalousová, 2019. "Comparability of Mortality Estimates from Social Surveys and Vital Statistics Data in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(3), pages 371-401, June.
    2. Janice Compton & Robert A Pollak, 2021. "The life expectancy of older couples and surviving spouses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Brown, Dustin C, 2019. "Comparability of Mortality Estimates from Social Surveys and Vital Statistics Data in the United States," SocArXiv x9f5y, Center for Open Science.
    4. Joshua R. Goldstein & Maria Osborne & Serge Atherwood & Casey F. Breen, 2023. "Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Saul Justin Newman, 2018. "Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Mortality Effects of Healthcare Supply Shocks: Evidence Using Linked Deaths and Electronic Health Records," NBER Working Papers 30553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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