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Evaluation of U.S. Mortality Patterns at Old Ages Using the Medicare Enrollment Data Base

Author

Listed:
  • Allan Parnell

    (Cedar Grove Institute for Sustainable Communities)

  • Cynthia R. Owens

    (Duke University)

Abstract

We evaluate the consistency of age-specific mortality patterns for older Americans using the Health Care Financing Administration´s (HCFA’s) Medicare Enrollment Data Base (EDB), a data set that includes over 30 million records. To do this, we compare the mortality curves across regions within race and sex groups, and we compare national mortality curves of white men and women relative to African American and Puerto Rican men and women. The Medicare EDB is a promising source of age-specific mortality data at oldest ages. Both the period and cohort age at death data for whites in the Medicare EDB appear to be very consistent, at least up to age 95, perhaps higher for women. Above age 100 the patterns become extremely inconsistent. However, questions remain about the age-specific mortality patterns of African Americans, especially the rates for men. The African-American mortality crossover is found in every period and cohort comparison of the national population. This crossover pattern is remarkably consistent, occurring at ages 85 or 86 in every cohort and period comparison. This data set is not sufficient to determine whether the African -American mortality crossover is real or due to age misreporting. And the considerable inconsistency across regions also creates concern about these data. When aggregated at the national level, the mortality curves for African American women may be okay up to age 90. In general, we conclude that further examination of the African American data is necessary before using them for substantive analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Parnell & Cynthia R. Owens, 1999. "Evaluation of U.S. Mortality Patterns at Old Ages Using the Medicare Enrollment Data Base," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:1:y:1999:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.1999.1.2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Masters, 2012. "Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 773-796, August.
    2. Neil K. Mehta & Irma T. Elo & Michal Engelman & Diane S. Lauderdale & Bert M. Kestenbaum, 2016. "Life Expectancy Among U.S.-born and Foreign-born Older Adults in the United States: Estimates From Linked Social Security and Medicare Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1109-1134, August.
    3. Ira Rosenwaike & Leslie Stone, 2003. "Verification of the ages of supercentenarians in the United States: Results of a matching study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 727-739, November.
    4. Dan A. Black & Yu-Chieh Hsu & Seth G. Sanders & Lynne Steuerle Schofield & Lowell J. Taylor, 2017. "The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2001-2024, December.
    5. Matthew E Dupre & Danan Gu & James W Vaupel, 2012. "Survival Differences among Native-Born and Foreign-Born Older Adults in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-8, May.
    6. Mark Hill & Samuel Preston & Ira Rosenwaike, 2000. "Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 175-186, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; United States of America; oldest old;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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