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Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors

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  • Leonid A Gavrilov
  • Natalia S Gavrilova

Abstract

Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data. Studies using both simulation and direct age validation found that longevity records for ages 105 years and older are often incorrect and may lead to spurious mortality deceleration and mortality plateau. After age 105 years, longevity claims should be considered as extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence. Traditional methods of data cleaning and data quality control are just not sufficient. New, more strict methodologies of data quality control need to be developed and tested. Before this happens, all mortality estimates for ages above 105 years should be treated with caution.This Primer explores recent evidence that demographic data errors can explain away apparent late-life mortality plateaus, proposing that traditional methods of data quality control are insufficient, and that claims of human longevity greater than 105 years should be considered extraordinary and require extraordinary evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid A Gavrilov & Natalia S Gavrilova, 2019. "Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-7, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pbio00:3000148
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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