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A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination

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  • Paolo Vitale

Abstract

We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics which have offered a novel approach to exchange rate determination. This new strand of research, the market microstructure approach to exchange rates, is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating exchange rate dynamics to the imbalance in the sequence of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the markets for foreign exchange. Through our review we outline the results this new strand of research has achieved alongside its open questions and future challenges.

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  • Paolo Vitale, 2007. "A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 903-934, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:21:y:2007:i:5:p:903-934
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00524.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Perez Ruiz, Daniel & Okot, Anjelo, 2022. "A structural analysis of foreign exchange markets in sub-Saharan Africa," EIB Working Papers 2022/11, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    3. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 629, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    5. Zi-Yi Guo, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Continuous Time: New Evidence from Martingale Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 507-512.
    6. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    7. Alan J Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 177-215, May.
    8. Paul Alagidede & Tseke Maserumule, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic announcements on foreign exchange volatility: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 751, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas A., 2010. "Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-63, January.
    10. José Luiz Rossi Júnior & Pedro Fontoura & Marina Rossi, 2023. "Are Global Factors Useful for Forecasting the Exchange Rate?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14.
    11. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    12. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Boom-and-bust cycles marked by capital inflows, current account deterioration and a rise and fall of the real exchange rate," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/10, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    13. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 40-45.
    14. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tseke Maserumule & Paul Alagidede, 2017. "Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Foreign Exchange Volatility: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 405-429, September.
    16. Brause, Alexander, 2008. "Foreign exchange interventions in emerging market countries: New lessons from Argentina," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 79, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    17. Áron Gereben & György Gyomai & Norbert Kiss M., 2005. "The microstructure approach to exchange rates: a survey from a central bank’s viewpoint," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/42, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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