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A Guided Tour of the Market Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rate Determination

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  • Vitale, Paolo

Abstract

We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics. This new strand of research is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating exchange rate returns to order flow. Plenty of empirical evidence shows that order flow, i.e. the imbalance in the sequence of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the markets for foreign exchange, is an extremely powerful determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. With a simplified analytical framework we see how, according to the rational expectation paradigm of asset pricing, such a relation reflects liquidity and information effects of portfolios shifts.

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  • Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "A Guided Tour of the Market Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," CEPR Discussion Papers 4530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4530
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    2. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    3. Alan J Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 177-215, May.
    4. Paul Alagidede & Tseke Maserumule, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic announcements on foreign exchange volatility: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 751, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas A., 2010. "Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-63, January.
    7. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    10. Tseke Maserumule & Paul Alagidede, 2017. "Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Foreign Exchange Volatility: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 405-429, September.
    11. Áron Gereben & György Gyomai & Norbert Kiss M., 2005. "The microstructure approach to exchange rates: a survey from a central bank’s viewpoint," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/42, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    13. Zi-Yi Guo, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Continuous Time: New Evidence from Martingale Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 507-512.
    14. José Luiz Rossi Júnior & Pedro Fontoura & Marina Rossi, 2023. "Are Global Factors Useful for Forecasting the Exchange Rate?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14.
    15. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Boom-and-bust cycles marked by capital inflows, current account deterioration and a rise and fall of the real exchange rate," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/10, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    16. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 40-45.
    17. Brause, Alexander, 2008. "Foreign exchange interventions in emerging market countries: New lessons from Argentina," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 79, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Order flow; Foreign exchange microstructure; Exchange rate dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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