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Momentum? What Momentum?

Author

Listed:
  • Theissen, Erik
  • Yilanci, Can

Abstract

Risk-adjusted momentum returns are usually estimated by sorting stocks into a regularly rebalanced long-short portfolio based on their prior return and then running a full-sample regression of the portfolio returns on a set of factors (portfolio-level risk adjustment). This approach implicitly assumes constant factor exposure of the momentum portfolio. However, momentum portfolios are characterized by high turnover and time-varying factor exposure. We propose to estimate the risk exposure at the stock-level. The risk-adjusted return of the momentum portfolio in month t then is the actual return minus the weighted average of the expected returns of the component stocks (stock-level risk adjustment). Based on evidence from the universe of CRSP stocks, from sub-periods and size-based sub-samples, from volatility-scaled momentum strategies (Barroso and Santa-Clara 2015) and from an international sample covering 20 developed countries, we conclude that the momentum effect may be much weaker than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Theissen, Erik & Yilanci, Can, 2020. "Momentum? What Momentum?," CFR Working Papers 20-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hendriock, Mario, 2020. "Implied cost of capital and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 20-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Risk adjustment; Time-series regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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