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Isolating momentum crashes

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  • Dierkes, Maik
  • Krupski, Jan

Abstract

Across markets, momentum is one of the most prominent anomalies and leads to high risk-adjusted returns. On the downside, momentum exhibits huge tail risk as there are short but persistent periods of highly negative returns. Crashes occur in rebounding bear markets, when momentum displays negative betas and momentum volatility is high. Based on ex-ante calculations of these risk measures we construct a crash indicator that effectively isolates momentum crashes from momentum bull markets. An implementable trading strategy that combines both systematic and momentum-specific risk more than doubles the Sharpe ratio of original momentum and outperforms existing risk management strategies over the 1928–2020 period, in 5 and 10-year sub-samples, and an international momentum portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Dierkes, Maik & Krupski, Jan, 2022. "Isolating momentum crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:66:y:2022:i:c:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.12.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.
    2. Li, Yan & Liang, Chao & L.D. Huynh, Toan, 2022. "A new momentum measurement in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Ma, Tian & Liao, Cunfei & Jiang, Fuwei, 2024. "Factor momentum in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Market anomalies; Momentum; Crash indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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