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Rebalancing and the Chinese VAT: Some numerical simulation results

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  • LI, Chunding
  • WHALLEY, John

Abstract

This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and receive welfare benefits by switching the value added tax (VAT) regime from the current destination principle to an origin principle. We modify the traditional general equilibrium tax model to capture endogenous trade imbalances along with endogenous factor supply, a fixed exchange rate and a non-accommodative monetary policy structure which supports the Chinese trade imbalance. We calibrate model parameters to 2008 data and simulate counterfactual equilibrium for VAT tax basis switches in which the trade imbalance changes. Our results suggest that given China's trade surplus VAT regime switching to an origin basis can decrease China's trade surplus by over 40%, and additionally increase Chinese and world welfare. This has implications for present G20 discussions on finding ways to adjust global trade imbalances.

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  • LI, Chunding & WHALLEY, John, 2012. "Rebalancing and the Chinese VAT: Some numerical simulation results," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:316-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2011.12.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Gene M., 1980. "Border tax adjustments: Do they distort trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 117-128, February.
    2. Dong Yan & Whalley John, 2011. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Whalley, 2012. "External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(4), December.
    2. Qi, Tianyu & Winchester, Niven & Karplus, Valerie J. & Zhang, Xiliang, 2014. "Will economic restructuring in China reduce trade-embodied CO2 emissions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 204-212.
    3. Romain Houssa & Kelbesa Megersa, 2017. "Institutional quality, economic development and the performance of VAT," BeFinD Working Papers 0115, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    4. Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2016. "Impact of mega trade deals on China: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value added tax; Destination basis; Origin basis; Numerical simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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