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Estimating the Long-Run Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation: A Response to McCallum

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  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

This note demonstrates that Bennett McCallum's recent critique of low frequency estimates of macro-economic relationships is of little empirical significance. It also demonstrates that readily available and frequently used techniques can be used to diagnose the problem McCallum raises. Finally, it shows that the standard critique of expectational distributed lags is not warranted once the role of learning by economic agents is recognized.

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  • Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Estimating the Long-Run Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation: A Response to McCallum," NBER Working Papers 1448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1448
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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Long-term Interest Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 153-185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moazzami, Bakhtiar & Gupta, Kanhaya L., 1995. "The quantity theory of money and its long-run implications," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 667-682.
    2. Virén, Matti, 1989. "The long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation : some cross-country evidence," Research Discussion Papers 20/1989, Bank of Finland.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," NBER Working Papers 8614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Markus J. Granziol & Anna Holzgang, 1988. "The Contribution of Inflation to the Level and the Variability of Nominal Interest Rates : Some Multi-Country Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(IV), pages 559-573, December.
    5. Michael Dueker & Laura E Jackson & Michael T Owyang & Martin Sola, 2023. "A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 63-98.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1989_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
    8. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "Fisher, Barro, and the Italian Interest Rate, 1845-93," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-169, March.
    9. Erol, Umit & Balkan, Erol M., 1996. "How financial markets process money information: A re-examination of evidence using band spectrum regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 639-656.
    10. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano, 2017. "Low frequency drivers of the real interest rate: a band spectrum regression approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1132, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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