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The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Gradual Correction or Abrupt Adjustment?

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large "current account reversals." The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger current account deficits, lower prices of exports relative to imports, and expansive monetary policies. On the other hand, this probability is lower for more advanced countries, and for countries with flexible exchange rates. An analysis of the marginal effects of current account deficits and of the predicted probability of reversal indicates that both have increased significantly for the U.S. since 1999. However, the level of this probability is still on the low side. I estimate that the predicted probability of a current account reversal in the U.S. has increased from 1.7% in 1999, to 14.9% in 2006.

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  • Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Gradual Correction or Abrupt Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 12154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12154
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    3. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    4. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2013. "La paradoja Feldstein – Horioka: Evidencia para Colombia (1925 – 2011)," Documentos de Trabajo 12393, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    5. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik & Brooks, Nora L. & Jerardo, Alberto & Vollrath, Thomas L., 2007. "Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 55963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Alpaslan AKÇORAOĞLU & Erkan AĞASLAN, 2009. "Current Account Deficits, Sustainability and Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey, 1987-2008," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 20(72), pages 1-20.
    7. Max Corden, 2008. "The Global Imbalances: What Is The Problem?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 53-58, June.
    8. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.
    9. Burfisher, Mary & Yuan, Wen Jin, 2020. "Comparing Trade Balance Closures in the GTAP-Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model Framework," Conference papers 333221, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.
    11. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Hwang, Young-Soon & McDonald, Judith A., 2009. "Are Asian countries' current accounts sustainable? Deficits, even when associated with high investment, are not costless," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-179.
    12. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2010. "The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits--A reappraisal after the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-97, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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