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Current Account Deficits, Sustainability and Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey, 1987-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Alpaslan AKÇORAOĞLU

    (Gazi University)

  • Erkan AĞASLAN

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

The objective of the present paper is to explore the sustainability of external position of Turkey over the period 1987Q1-2008Q2 by using the intertemporal approach to current account as well as some important macroeconomic indicators. The empirical methodology used to test the intertemporal model of the current account in this paper is the present value test. Turkey experienced large external deficits and over-valuation of the national currency over the period 2004Q1-2008Q2. The empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that current account deficits of Turkey were unsustainable over the period 1987Q1-2008Q2. Furthermore, the empirical results of external sustainability reveal that the actual current account deficits were excessive relative to the optimal current account balances over the period 2004Q1-2008Q2.

Suggested Citation

  • Alpaslan AKÇORAOĞLU & Erkan AĞASLAN, 2009. "Current Account Deficits, Sustainability and Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey, 1987-2008," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 20(72), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:20:y:2009:i:72:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10689
    Note: [Turkish Title] Cari Açık, Sürdürülebilirlik Ve Küresel Finansal Kriz: Türkiye’ye İlişkin Ampirik Kanıtlar 1987 - 2008 [Turkish Abstract] Bu makalenin temel amacı cari işlemler hesabına ilişkin dönemler arası yaklaşımı ve bazı önemli makroiktisadi göstergeleri kullanarak, Türkiye’nin cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülebilirliğinin 1987Q1-2008Q2 dönemi için incelenmesidir. Cari işlemlere ilişkin dönemler arası modeli bu makalede kullanılan ampirik yöntem şimdiki değer testidir. Türkiye ekonomisi 2004Q1-2008Q2 döneminde yüksek dış açıklar ve ulusal paranın aşırı-değerlenmesi olguları ile karşılaşmıştır. Bu makalede sunulan ampirik kanıtlar Türkiye’nin cari açıklarının 1987Q1-2008Q2 döneminde sürdürülemez olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, dış sürdürülebilirliğine ilişkin ampirik sonuçlar gerçekleşen cari işlemler açıklarının optimal cari işlemler hesabı değerlerine göre aşırı olduğunu göstermektedir. [Turkish Keywords] Cari Açık, Sürdürülebilirlik ve Eşbütünleşme
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