IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/11878.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002

Author

Listed:
  • Ann Huff Stevens

Abstract

This study considers whether there has been a decline in the attachment of workers and firms in the United States over the past several decades. Specifically, it compares snapshots of job tenure taken at the end of workers' careers from 1969 to 2002, using data from the Retirement History Survey, the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men, and the Health and Retirement Study. The primary finding is one of stability in the prevalence of long-term employment relationships for men in the United States. In 1969, average tenure in the longest job for males aged 58-62 was 21.9 years. In 2002, the comparable figure was 21.4 years. Just over half of men ending their careers in 1969 had been with a single employer for at least 20 years; the same is true in 2002. This finding is robust to adjustments for minor differences in question details across data sources and for educational and retirement age changes over this time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11878
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11878.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure," Working Papers 2002-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. John Bound & Sarah Turner, 2002. "Going to War and Going to College: Did World War II and the G.I. Bill Increase Educational Attainment for Returning Veterans?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 784-815, October.
    3. Ureta, Manuelita, 1992. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 322-335, March.
    4. Joseph F. Quinn, 1999. "Has the Early Retirement Trend Reversed?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 424, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel, 1997. "Job Stability in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 206-233, April.
    6. Hall, Robert E, 1982. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 716-724, September.
    7. David Neumark, 2000. "Changes in Job Stability and Job Security: A Collective Effort to Untangle, Reconcile, and Interpret the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jaeger, David A. & Stevens, Ann Huff, 1999. "Is Job Stability in the United States Falling?," IZA Discussion Papers 35, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luc Behaghel & Julie Moschion, 2011. "Skilled labor supply, IT-based technical change and job instability," Working Papers halshs-00646595, HAL.
    2. Miikka Rokkanen & Roope Uusitalo, 2013. "Changes in Job Stability – Evidence from Lifetime Job Histories," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 36-55, Autumn.
    3. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Is the Company Man an Anachronism? Trends in Long Term Employment in the U.S., 1973-2006," Working Papers 1039, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1068, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Henry R. Hyatt & James R. Spletzer, 2016. "The Shifting Job Tenure Distribution†," Working Papers 16-12r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The shifting job tenure distribution," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-377.
    8. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 2009. "The Rising Instability of U.S. Earnings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Luc Behaghel & Eve Caroli & Emmanuelle Walkowiak, 2012. "Information and communication technologies and skill upgrading: the role of internal vs external labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 490-517, July.
    11. Dynan Karen & Elmendorf Douglas & Sichel Daniel, 2012. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December.
    12. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    14. repec:pri:cepsud:172farber is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Henry S. Farber, 2010. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 223-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bernhardt, Annette, 2014. "Labor Standards and the Reorganization of Work: Gaps in Data and Research," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3hc6t3d5, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    17. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1068, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    18. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1056, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1056, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    21. David Brauer, 2007. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Working Paper 2007-06," Working Papers 18566, Congressional Budget Office.
    22. Espen Bratberg & Kjell G. Salvanes & Kjell Vaage, 2010. "Has Job Stability Decreased? Population Data from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 163-183, March.
    23. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Is the Company Man an Anachronism? Trends in Long Term Employment in the U.S., 1973-20061," Working Papers 1039, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    24. Alicia H. Munnell & Dan Muldoon & Steven A. Sass, 2009. "Recessions and Older Workers," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-2, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2009.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alicia H. Munnell & Kelly Haverstick & Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, 2006. "Job Tenure and Pension Coverage," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2006.
    2. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mertens, Antje, 1999. "Job stability trends and labor market (re-)entry in West Germany 1984 - 1997," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,60, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    4. Peter AUER & Sandrine CAZES, 2000. "The resilience of the long-term employment relationship: Evidence from the industrialized countries," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 139(4), pages 379-408, December.
    5. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1998. "The decline of job security in the 1990s: displacement, anxiety, and their effect on wage growth," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Q I), pages 17-43.
    6. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2439-2483 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure," Working Papers 2002-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Fligstein, Neil & Shin, Taek-Jin, 2003. "The shareholder value society: A review of the changes in working conditions and inequality in the U.S., 1976-2000," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt0z85d717, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    9. Henry S. Farber, 1996. "The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1993," NBER Working Papers 5596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Miikka Rokkanen & Roope Uusitalo, 2013. "Changes in Job Stability – Evidence from Lifetime Job Histories," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 36-55, Autumn.
    11. Friedberg Leora & Owyang Michael T & Sinclair Tara M, 2006. "Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-42, August.
    12. Henry S. Farber, 1995. "Are Lifetime Jobs Disappearing? Job Duration in the United States: 1973-1993," NBER Working Papers 5014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Heisz, Andrew, 1996. "Changes in Job Tenure and Job Stability in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1996095e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    14. Cho, Joonmo, 2004. "Flexibility, instability and institutional insecurity in Korean labor market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 315-351, April.
    15. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2001. "Flexibility versus Commitment in Personnel Management," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 515-556, December.
    16. Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel & Hansen, Daniel, 1999. "Has Job Stability Declined Yet? New Evidence for the 1990s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 29-64, October.
    17. Murphy, Kevin J., 2007. "The impact of unemployment insurance taxes on wages," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 457-484, June.
    18. Ono, Hiroshi, 2010. "Lifetime employment in Japan: Concepts and measurements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-27, March.
    19. Luke Ignaczak & Marcel Voia, 2009. "A Nonparametric Analysis Of Canadian Employment Patterns," Carleton Economic Papers 09-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    20. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    21. Alan Manning & Graham Mazeine, 2020. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the UK, Germany and the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1712, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2004. "Changes in job security and their causes: An empirical analysis for France, 1982-2002," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 595-615, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.