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The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Working Paper 2007-06

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  • David Brauer

Abstract

This paper assesses the natural rate of unemployment—the unemployment rate that arises from all sources other than fluctuations in demand associated with business cycles. The natural rate is determined by the rate at which jobs are simultaneously created and destroyed, the rate of turnover in particular jobs, and how quickly unemployed workers are matched with vacant positions. Those factors in turn depend on the characteristics of jobs and of workers and on the efficiency of the labor market’s matching process. Evidence points to a natural rate that has declined over the

Suggested Citation

  • David Brauer, 2007. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Working Paper 2007-06," Working Papers 18566, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:18566
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/110th-congress-2007-2008/workingpaper/2007-06_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    2. R. Jason Faberman, 2006. "Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All "Recoveries" Are Created Equal," Working Papers 391, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    3. Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The recent evolution of the natural rate of unemployment," Working Paper Series 2011-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Mary C. Daly & Bast Hobijn & Ayşeqül Şahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "Rynki pracy w modelu poszukiwań i dopasowań: czy naturalna stopa bezrobocia rzeczywiście wzrosła?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 147-172.
    4. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
    5. Robert W. Arnold, 2009. "The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 271-290.
    6. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    7. Richard Raines & Jungho Baek, 2016. "The Recent Evolution of the U.S. Beveridge Curve: Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 14-24, August.
    8. Mary Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert Valletta, 2011. "A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-160/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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