IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtl/montde/9621.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Touhami, A.
  • Martens, A.

Abstract

With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Touhami, A. & Martens, A., 1996. "Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco," Cahiers de recherche 9621, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9621
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2045
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    2. Dufour, J.M., 1995. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Instrumental Variables, Dynamic Models and Cointegration," Cahiers de recherche 9539, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Marcel Boyer & Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1996. "Environmental protection, producer insolvency and lender liability," Chapters, in: Anastasios Xepapadeas (ed.), Economic Policy for the Environment and Natural Resources, chapter 1, pages 1-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Sprumont, Y., 1995. "An Axiomatization of the Pazner-Schmeidler Rules in Large Fair Division Problems," Cahiers de recherche 9512, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995. "A Discrete-Time Version of Target Zone Models with Jumps," Cahiers de recherche 9530, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    6. Ghysels, E. & Hall, A. & Lee, H.S., 1995. "On Periodic Structures and Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots," Cahiers de recherche 9518, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    7. Arcand, J.L. & Boulila, G. & Tritten, C., 1995. "Intergenerational Contracts, Remittances, and Growth," Cahiers de recherche 9543, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    9. Leonard Dudley, 2000. "The rationality of revolution," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 77-103, March.
    10. Mercenier, Jean & Michel, Philippe, 2001. "Temporal aggregation in a multi-sector economy with endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1179-1191, August.
    11. Ghysels, E. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 1995. "Market Time and Asset Price Movements: Theory and Estimation," Cahiers de recherche 9536, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    12. Daniel Parent, 1995. "Industry-Specific Capital and the Wage Profile: Evidence from the NLSY and the PSID," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-26, CIRANO.
    13. Ng, S. & Pinkse, J., 1995. "Nonparametric-two-Step Estimation of Unknown Regression Functions when the Regressors and the Regression Error Are not Independent," Cahiers de recherche 9551, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1995. "Estimating & Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Working papers 95-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    15. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Vanasse, Charles, 1998. "Inferring technological parameters from incomplete panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 303-327, September.
    16. Eric Ghysels & Lynda Khalaf & Cosmé Vodounou, 2003. "Simulation Based Inference In Moving Average Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 69, pages 85-99.
    17. Ng, Serena & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "The Risky Spread, Investment, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence on the Role of Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 375-383, August.
    18. Dionne, Georges & Fombaron, Nathalie, 1996. "Non-convexities and the efficiency of equilibria in insurance markets with asymmetric information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 31-40, July.
    19. Georges Dionne & Tahar Mounsif, 1996. "Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: The Newsboy Problem Revisited," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 21(2), pages 179-189, December.
    20. Arcand, J.L. & Dagenais, M.G., 1995. "The Empirics of Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries: Do Errors in Variables Really Not Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 9546, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    21. Marcel Boyer & Philippe Mahenc & Michel Moreaux, 1995. "Entry Blockading Locations," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-51, CIRANO.
    22. Hosken, D.S. & Margolis, D.N., 1996. "The Efficiency of Collective Bargaining in Public Schools," Cahiers de recherche 9609, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    23. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    24. Dionne,G. & Fluet,C., 1995. "Incentives in Multi-period Regulation and Procurement:a Graphical Analysis," Papers 9516, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
    25. De Lemos Grandmont, R., 1995. "Multivariate Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breaks: the Case of Money Demand in Mexico," Cahiers de recherche 9554, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    26. Kollmann, R., 1995. "Mark Up Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing and Trade: New Empirical Evidence Based on a Model of Optimal Storage," Cahiers de recherche 9526, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    27. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    28. Ghysels, Eric & Granger, Clive W J & Siklos, Pierre L, 1996. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 374-386, July.
    29. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Tests Structural Change in First-Order Dynamic Models," Cahiers de recherche 9548, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    30. BOYER, Marcel & MOREAUX, Michel, 1995. "Capacity Commitment Versus Flexibility: The Technological Choice Nexus in a Strategic Context," Cahiers de recherche 9556, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    31. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
    32. repec:fth:prinin:350 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Ghysels, E. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 9612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    34. Boyer, Marcel & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1997. "Environmental risks and bank liability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1427-1459, August.
    35. Dionne, G. & Artis, M. & Guillen, M., 1995. "On the Repayment of Personal Loans under Asymmetrical Information: A Count Data Model Approach," Papers 9509, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
    36. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    37. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
    38. Fortin, N.M. & Lemieux, T., 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and Gender Differences in Wage Inequality," Cahiers de recherche 9608, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    39. Dudley, Leonard, 1999. "Communications and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 595-619, March.
    40. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    41. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April.
    42. Loranger, J.G., 1995. "Neoliberalism and the Overwelming Influence of Financial Markets: A Comparative Analysis between NAFTA Countries and Other G-& Countries," Cahiers de recherche 9541, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    43. Loranger, J.G., 1995. "Neoliberalism and the Overwelming Influence of Financial Markets: a Comparative Analysis between NAFTA Countries and Other G-& Countries," Cahiers de recherche 9541, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    44. Margolis, D..N., 1995. "Firm Heterogeneity and Worker Self-Selection Bias Estimated Returns to Seniority," Cahiers de recherche 9502, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    45. Perron, Pierre & Ng, Serena, 1998. "An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator At Frequency Zero For Nonstationarity Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 560-603, October.
    46. Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 1998. "Rank Regressions, Wage Distributions, and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(3), pages 610-643.
    47. De Lemos Grandmont, R., 1995. "Mutilvariate Cointegration in the Presence of Structural Breaks: The Case of Money Demand in Mexico," Cahiers de recherche 9554, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    48. Sprumont, Yves, 1997. "Balanced egalitarian redistribution of income," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 185-201, June.
    49. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia, 1994. "Indexation Lags and Heterodox Stabilization Programs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 35, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    50. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for Homogeneity in Demand Systems When the Regressors Are Nonstationary," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 147-163, April-Jun.
    51. Bronsard, C. & Michel, P. & Salvas-Bronsard, L., 1995. "Singular Demand Systems as an Intrument of Scientific Discovery," Cahiers de recherche 9532, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    52. Viala, P. & Briys, E., 1995. "Optimal Insurance Design Under Background Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9550, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    53. Parent, Daniel, 1999. "Wages and Mobility: The Impact of Employer-Provided Training," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 298-317, April.
    54. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kiviet, Jan F., 1996. "Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 39-68, January.
    55. Bronsard, C. & Salvas-Bronsard, L. & Trognon, A., 1995. "On the Residual Dynamics Implied by Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche 9522, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    56. Arcand, Jean-Louis, 1996. "Land-Ownership, Working Capital and Agricultural Output: Egypt 1913-58," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(1), pages 92-158, March.
    57. Jean-Marie Dufour & Jan F. Kiviet, 1998. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 79-104, January.
    58. Arcand, J.L., 1995. "Land Ownership, Working Capital, and the Agricultural Output: Egypt, 1913-1958," Cahiers de recherche 9545, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    59. Daniel Parent, 1995. "Industry-Specific Capital and the Wage Profile: Evidence from the NLSY and the PSID," Working Papers 729, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Favard, Pascal & Gaudet, Gerard & Moreaux, Michel, 1998. "On the Optimal Order of Natural Resource Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute Is Limited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 153-170, May.
    2. Yves Sprumont, 1998. "On the Game-Theoretic Structure of Public-Good Economies," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 26(4), pages 455-472.
    3. Pesaran, M.H. & Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995. "A Discrete-Time Version of Target Zone Models with Jumps," Cahiers de recherche 9530, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2439-2483 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    6. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
    7. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
    8. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2014. "Exact confidence sets and goodness-of-fit methods for stable distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 3-14.
    9. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Genest, Ian, 2004. "Simulation-based finite-sample tests for heteroskedasticity and ARCH effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 317-347, October.
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Simulation based finite and large sample tests in multivariate regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 303-322, December.
    11. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Exact tests for contemporaneous correlation of disturbances in seemingly unrelated regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 143-170, January.
    12. Margolis, D..N., 1995. "Firm Heterogeneity and Worker Self-Selection Bias Estimated Returns to Seniority," Cahiers de recherche 9502, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    13. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf, 2005. "Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions," Springer Books, in: Michèle Breton & Hatem Ben-Ameur (ed.), Numerical Methods in Finance, chapter 0, pages 173-191, Springer.
    14. Vilhuber, Lars, 2001. "La spécificité de la formation en milieu de travail : un survol des contributions théoriques et empiriques récentes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(1), pages 133-167, mars.
    15. Jean-Marie Dufour & Pascale Valery, 2000. "Monte Carlo Test Applied to Models Estimated by Indirect Inference," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1667, Econometric Society.
    16. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2005. "Exact tests of the stability of the Phillips curve: the Canadian case," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 445-460, April.
    17. VILHUBERT, Lars, 1999. "Sector-Specific on-the-Job Training: Evidence from U.S. Data," Cahiers de recherche 9906, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    18. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Nadhem Idoudi & Lynda Khalaf & Clément Yélou, 2007. "Finite sample inference methods for dynamic energy demand models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 1211-1226.
    19. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "Markovian processes, two-sided autoregressions and finite-sample inference for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-289, December.
    20. Chennouf, Soheïl & Lévy-Garboua, Louis & Montmarquette, Claude, 1997. "Les effets de l’appartenance à un groupe de travail sur les salaires individuels," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 207-232, mars-juin.
    21. Lars Vilhuber, 1997. "Sector-Specific On-the-Job Training: Evidence from U.S. Data," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-42, CIRANO.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sharon BREWER (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demtlca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.