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Intermittent demand forecasting for inventory control: A multi-series approach

Author

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  • Ralph Snyder
  • Adrian Beaumont
  • J. Keith Ord

Abstract

This paper is concerned with identifying an effective method for forecasting the lead time demand of slow-moving inventories. Particular emphasis is placed on prediction distributions instead of point predictions alone. It is also placed on methods which work with small samples as well as large samples in recognition of the fact that the typical range of items has a mix of vintages due to different commissioning and decommissioning dates over time. Various forecasting methods are compared using monthly demand data for more than one thousand car parts. It is found that a multi-series version of exponential smoothing coupled with a Pólya (negative binomial) distribution works better than the other twenty-four methods considered, including the Croston method.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph Snyder & Adrian Beaumont & J. Keith Ord, 2012. "Intermittent demand forecasting for inventory control: A multi-series approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2012-15
    as

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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp15-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    2. Harvey, Andrew C & Fernandes, C, 1989. "Time Series Models for Count or Qualitative Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 407-417, October.
    3. Keith Ord & Ralph Snyder & Adrian Beaumont, 2010. "Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith & Beaumont, Adrian, 2012. "Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 485-496.
    5. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    6. Billah, Baki & King, Maxwell L. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 239-247.
    7. Harvey, Andrew C & Fernandes, C, 1989. "Time Series Models for Count or Qualitative Observations: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 422-422, October.
    8. Gary K. Grunwald & Kais Hamza & Rob J. Hyndman, 1997. "Some Properties and Generalizations of Non‐negative Bayesian Time Series Models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(3), pages 615-626.
    9. Teunter, Ruud H. & Syntetos, Aris A. & Zied Babai, M., 2011. "Intermittent demand: Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 606-615, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand forecasting; inventory control; shifted Poisson distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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