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Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM

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  • Christina Benita Wilke

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Um die zukünftige Entwicklung der deutschen Rentenversicherung und die Auswirkungen tatsächlicher sowie potentieller Rentenreformen analysieren zu können, bedarf es eines Simulationsmodells, das das Rentenversicherungssystem in seinen entscheidenden Determinanten abzubilden vermag. Dabei sind insbesondere auch die unterschiedlichen möglichen demographischen und ökonomischen Entwicklungen zu berücksichtigen. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, das Rentensimulationsprogramm MEA-PENSIM vorzustellen, welches am Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA) entwickelt wurde. Das Papier gliedert sich in drei Teile. Der erste Teil gibt zunächst eine kurze Einführung in das MEA-PENSIM Programm, bevor im zweiten Teil das dem Programm zugrunde liegende Modellkonzept im Detail vorgestellt wird. Im dritten Teil werden einige ausgewählte Anwendungen des Programms dargestellt. Dabei wird aufgezeigt, wie robust die Ergebnisse aus MEA-PENSIM bezüglich der ihnen zugrunde liegenden Annahmen sind, wie anhand von MEA-PENSIM neue Rentenreformvorschläge entwickelt werden können und welche künftige Bedeutung der gesetzlichen und der privaten Altersvorsorge bei gegebenen Reformszenarien zukommt. Das Papier schließt mit einem kurzen Ausblick.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Benita Wilke, 2004. "Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM," MEA discussion paper series 04048, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:04048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Reil-Held, Anette, 2004. "Hochrechnungsmethoden und Szenarien für gesetzliche und private Renteninformationen," MEA discussion paper series 04049, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Axel H. Börsch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2003. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," Working Papers wp041, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Berkel, Barbara & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2003. "Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in Deutschland: Langfristige Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen," MEA discussion paper series 03031, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV," MEA discussion paper series 03030, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    Cited by:

    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," MEA discussion paper series 05085, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Seuffert, Stefan, 2020. "German Pension Simulation: Arbeitspapier zur Methodik eines anwartschaftsbasierten Projektionsmodells der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," FZG Discussion Papers 73, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    3. Christina Benita Wilke, 2006. "Die ökonomischen Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels in Bayern," MEA discussion paper series 06106, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Christina Benita Wilke, 2008. "On the feasibility of notional defined contribution systems: The German case," MEA discussion paper series 08165, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform : how well prepared are the Germans?," Papers 05-19, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Christina Benita Wilke, 2005. "Rates of Return of the German PAYG System - How they can be measured and how they will develop," MEA discussion paper series 05097, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    9. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie: Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 36-43, April.
    10. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2008. "Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen : Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten," Papers 08-44, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

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