Wie gut können wir die Folgen des demographischen Wandels abschätzen? Was ist sicher? Wozu brauchen wir bessere Daten?

Demographic change in Germany, as one of the megatrends of the 21st century, is a well-known fact which will, without a doubt, profoundly change the country’s social and economic situation and challenge our whole economic system. Spurred by statements by press and political representatives, demographic change is widely regarded as a menace and mere cost factor across the population. But this point of view disregards that the fact that people are becoming increasingly older can serve as a solution to many of the looming problems as well. A properly functioning health care system can lead to longer working lives which can in turn ensure a sustainable funding of the welfare system. The counter-argument of lacking health of the elderly does not seem to conform to the empirical evidence. A consequent implementation of needed reforms can make up for the negative impacts of demographic change and render it a chance rather than a menace. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012