IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mil/wpdepa/2010-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is wine a financial parachute?

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia BALDI
  • Massimo PERI
  • Daniela VANDONE

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between Global Wine Industry Share Price Indexes and composite stock market indexes using a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM), aiming to investigate if investments in the wine sector play a role in determining financial risk and return to investors who include it in their portfolio. Whilst most of the literature analyses the return of investments of fine wine, this paper places the focus to “normal” (i. e. non-fine) wine, using data from the Mediobanca database covering companies in the wine industry listed on regulated stock market in France, US, Australia, Chile and China . The dataset cover the time period going from January 1, 2001, to the end of February 2009. The estimates of the TVECM lead to the following results: i) in more mature markets, like France and the US, the presence of a threshold in the relationship between wine index and composite index permit informed investors to make gainful investments; ii) in less mature markets, like Chile and China, there is evidence suggest that wine is not used as a financial parachute.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2010. "Is wine a financial parachute?," Departmental Working Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2010-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/files/wp/2010/DEMM-2010_001wp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    3. Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
    4. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Bubbles in Prices of Exhaustible Resources," NBER Working Papers 13320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2003. "Non‐linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 557-573, December.
    7. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in the parallel and official markets for foreign currency in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 665-682, July.
    8. Berument Hakan & Akdi Yilmaz & Atakan Cemal, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Istanbul Stock Exchange Sub-Indexes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    10. Gregorios Siourounis, 2002. "Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 47-55.
    11. Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2008. "Long-run and short-run relationship between the main stock indexes: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1401-1410.
    12. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    13. Krasker, William S, 1979. "The Rate of Return to Storing Wines," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1363-1367, December.
    14. Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
    15. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    17. Jaeger, Elizabeth, 1981. "To Save or Savor: The Rate of Return to Storing Wine: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 584-592, June.
    18. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    19. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
    20. Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    22. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 533-576, September.
    23. Jones, Gregory V. & Storchmann, Karl-Heinz, 2001. "Wine market prices and investment under uncertainty: an econometric model for Bordeaux Crus Classes," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 115-133, November.
    24. Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August.
    25. Sanning, Lee W. & Shaffer, Sherrill L. & Sharratt, Jo Marie, 2007. "Alternative investments: the case of wine," Working Papers 37322, American Association of Wine Economists.
    26. Bukenya, James O. & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Do fluctuations in wine stocks affect wine prices?," Working Papers 37317, American Association of Wine Economists.
    27. Burton, Benjamin J & Jacobsen, Joyce P, 2001. "The Rate of Return on Investment in Wine," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 337-350, July.
    28. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    29. Ratner, Mitchell, 1996. "Investigating the behavior and characteristics of the Madrid Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 135-149, January.
    30. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    31. David Aylward & Tim Turpin, 2003. "New Wine In Old Bottles: A Case Study Of Innovation Territories In "New World" Wine Production," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 501-525.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    33. James Joseph Fogarty, 2006. "The return to Australian fine wine," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 33(4), pages 542-561, December.
    34. Shively, Philip A., 2003. "The nonlinear dynamics of stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-517.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    2. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
    3. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    4. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    5. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
    6. Bothwell Nyoni & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "The Electricity-growth Nexus in South Africa: Evidence from Asymmetric Cointegration and Co-feature Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 80-88.
    7. Ormos, Mihály & Erdős, Péter, 2011. "Borok mint alternatív befektetési lehetőségek [Wines as an alternative investment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 158-172.
    8. Mohcine Bakhat & Klaas WŸrzburg, 2013. "Co-integration of Oil and Commodity Prices: A Comprehensive ApproachAbstract," Working Papers fa05-2013, Economics for Energy.
    9. B. Faye & E. Le Fur & S. Prat, 2015. "Dynamics of fine wine and asset prices: evidence from short- and long-run co-movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3059-3077, June.
    10. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    11. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Jiao, Linda, 2018. "The long-term financial drivers of fine wine prices: The role of emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 347-361.
    14. Fur, Eric Le, 2021. "Fine Wines in a Diversified Portfolio of Collectibles," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    16. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2012. "Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coeffi cient Framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 0362, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Jesús Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2013. "Estimation and inference in threshold type regime switching models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 189-205, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj, 2013. "Computational tools in econometric modeling for macroeconomics and finance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-4.
    19. Loesse Esso, 2012. "Re-examining the saving-investment nexus: threshold cointegration and causality evidence from the ECOWAS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 193-220, August.
    20. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wine sector; Stock market; Threshold cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2010-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEMM Working Papers (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damilit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.