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Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Pozzer

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
    The Cyprus Institute)

  • Brendan Steffens

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry)

  • Yiannis Proestos

    (The Cyprus Institute)

  • Jean Sciare

    (The Cyprus Institute)

  • Dimitris Akritidis

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
    Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • Sourangsu Chowdhury

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Katrin Burkart

    (University of Washington)

  • Sara Bacer

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry)

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously. Here we show that under a realistic scenario, end-of-century mortality could quadruple from present-day values to around 30 (95% confidence level:12-53) million people/year. While pollution-related mortality is projected to increase five-fold, temperature-related mortality will experience a seven-fold rise, making it a more important health risk factor than air pollution for at least 20% of the world’s population. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement stronger climate policies to prevent future loss of life, outweighing the benefits of air quality improvements alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Pozzer & Brendan Steffens & Yiannis Proestos & Jean Sciare & Dimitris Akritidis & Sourangsu Chowdhury & Katrin Burkart & Sara Bacer, 2024. "Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53649-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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