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Economic uncertainty and structural reforms

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Abstract

Does economic uncertainty promote the implementation of structural reforms? We answer this question using one of the most exhaustive cross-country panel data set on reforms in six major areas and measuring economic uncertainty with stock market volatility. To address endogeneity concerns, we propose various identification strategies, instrumenting uncertainty with world shocks to volatility and with natural disasters, political coups and revolutions. Across all specifications, we find that uncertainty has a positive and significant e§ect on the adoption of reforms. This result is robust to the inclusion of a large number of controls, such as political variables, economic variables, crisis indicators, and a host of country, reform and time fixed effects.

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  • Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Gino Gancia, 2015. "Economic uncertainty and structural reforms," Economics Working Papers 1494, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1494
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    Cited by:

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    3. Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020. "Close encounters of the European kind: Economic integration, sectoral heterogeneity and structural reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
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    5. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    6. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market reforms in the time of imbalance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 69-93.
    7. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    8. Shuanping Dai & Guanzhong Yang, 2020. "Does Social Inducement Lead to Higher Open Innovation Investment? An Experimental Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Romp, Ward & Beetsma, Roel, 2023. "OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Vera Eichenauer & Ronald Indergand & Isabel Z. Martínez & Christoph Sax, 2020. "Constructing Daily Economic Sentiment Indices Based on Google Trends," KOF Working papers 20-484, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Beetsma, Roel & Romp, Ward & van Maurik, Ron, 2017. "What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 12313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reforms; Uncertainty.;

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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