IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kud/kuiedp/2003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fake News, Voter Overconfidence, and the Quality of Democratic Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Melis Kartal

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Jean-Robert Tyran

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper studies, theoretically and experimentally, the effects of overconfidence and fake news on information aggregation and the quality of democratic choice in a common interest setting. We theoretically show that overconfidence exacerbates the adverse effects of widespread misinformation (i.e., fake news). We study extensions that allow for partisan biases, targeted misinformation intended to move public opinion in a specific direction, and correlated news signals (due to for example media ownership concentration). In our experiment, voters are exposed to correct news or misinformation. The extent to which a subject is likely to observe correct news depends on their cognitive ability. Absent overconfidence, more cognitively able subjects are predicted to vote while less able subjects are predicted to abstain, and information is predicted to aggregate well. We provide evidence that overconfidence induces misinformed subjects to vote excessively, thereby severly undermining information aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Melis Kartal & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2020. "Fake News, Voter Overconfidence, and the Quality of Democratic Choice," Discussion Papers 20-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.ku.dk/research/publications/wp/dp-2020/2003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Browning & M. Dolores Collado, 2001. "The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 681-692, June.
    2. Abi Adams & Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Ewout Verriest, 2014. "Consume Now or Later? Time Inconsistency, Collective Choice, and Revealed Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4147-4183, December.
    3. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Estimating Time Preferences from Convex Budgets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3333-3356, December.
    4. Jaap H. Abbring & {O}ystein Daljord, 2019. "A Comment on "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting" by Hanming Fang and Yang Wang," Papers 1905.07048, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    5. M. Dolores Collado & Martin Browning, 2007. "Habits and heterogeneity in demands: a panel data analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 625-640.
    6. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
    7. Fischer, Carolyn, 1999. "Read This Paper Even Later: Procrastination with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," RFF Working Paper Series dp-99-20, Resources for the Future.
    8. Nava Ashraf & Dean Karlan & Wesley Yin, 2006. "Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 635-672.
    9. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 565-596, May.
    10. Uri Benzion & Amnon Rapoport & Joseph Yagil, 1989. "Discount Rates Inferred from Decisions: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 270-284, March.
    11. Andreu Mas-Colell, 1978. "On Revealed Preference Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(1), pages 121-131.
    12. Browning, Martin, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test of the Life-Cycle Rational Expectations Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 979-992, November.
    13. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List, 2007. "What Do Laboratory Experiments Measuring Social Preferences Reveal About the Real World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 153-174, Spring.
    14. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
    15. W. E. Diewert, 1973. "Afriat and Revealed Preference Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(3), pages 419-425.
    16. James Andreoni & John Miller, 2002. "Giving According to GARP: An Experimental Test of the Consistency of Preferences for Altruism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 737-753, March.
    17. Varian, Hal R., 1985. "Non-parametric analysis of optimizing behavior with measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 445-458.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ralph-Christopher Bayer & Marco Faravelli & Carlos Pimienta, 2023. "The Wisdom of the Crowd: Uninformed Voting and the Efficiency of Democracy," Discussion Papers 2023-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Christopher Adamo & Jeffrey Carpenter, 2023. "Sentiment and the belief in fake news during the 2020 presidential primaries," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 512-547.
    3. Agneman, Gustav, 2022. "How economic expectations shape preferences for national independence: Evidence from Greenland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Thomas Markussen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2023. "Is There a Dividend of Democracy? Experimental Evidence from Cooperation Games," CESifo Working Paper Series 10616, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Blow & Martin Browning & Ian Crawford, 2021. "Non-parametric Analysis of Time-Inconsistent Preferences [Comment on `Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting’ by Hanming Fang and Yang Wang]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2687-2734.
    2. Eileen Tipoe & Abi Adams & Ian Crawford, 2022. "Revealed preference analysis and bounded rationality [Consume now or later? Time inconsistency, collective choice and revealed preference]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 313-332.
    3. Abi Adams & Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Ewout Verriest, 2014. "Consume Now or Later? Time Inconsistency, Collective Choice, and Revealed Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4147-4183, December.
    4. Laura Blow & Martin Browning & Ian Crawford, 2014. "Never mind the hyperbolics: nonparametric analysis of time-inconsistent preferences," IFS Working Papers W14/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Olivier l'Haridon & Corina Paraschiv, 2013. "Do Couples Discount Future Consequences Less than Individuals?," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 201320, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    6. Min Gong & David Krantz & Elke Weber, 2014. "Why Chinese discount future financial and environmental gains but not losses more than Americans," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 103-124, October.
    7. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    8. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Enrico Diecidue & Olivier l’Haridon, 2017. "Patience and time consistency in collective decisions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 181-208, March.
    9. Stein T. Holden & Dag Einar Sommervoll & Mesfin Tilahun, 2022. "Mental Zooming as Variable Asset Integration in Inter-Temporal Choice," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Dorian Jullien, 2018. "Under Risk, Over Time, Regarding Other People: Language and Rationality within Three Dimensions," Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology, in: Including a Symposium on Latin American Monetary Thought: Two Centuries in Search of Originality, volume 36, pages 119-155, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Uttara Balakrishnan & Johannes Haushofer & Pamela Jakiela, 2020. "How soon is now? Evidence of present bias from convex time budget experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 294-321, June.
    12. David Bradford & Charles Courtemanche & Garth Heutel & Patrick McAlvanah & Christopher Ruhm, 2017. "Time preferences and consumer behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 119-145, December.
    13. Leigh Anderson & Kostas G. Stamoulis, 2006. "Applying Behavioural Economics to International Development Policy," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-24, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Hiroki Nishimura & Efe A. Ok & John K.-H. Quah, 2017. "A Comprehensive Approach to Revealed Preference Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1239-1263, April.
    15. Victor H Aguiar & Nail Kashaev, 2021. "Stochastic Revealed Preferences with Measurement Error [Consistency between Household-level Consumption Data from Registers and Surveys]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 2042-2093.
    16. Reuben, Ernesto & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2015. "Procrastination and impatience," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 63-76.
    17. Schreiber, Philipp & Weber, Martin, 2016. "Time inconsistent preferences and the annuitization decision," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 37-55.
    18. Venkataraghavan Krishnaswamy & Aseem Pahuja & R. P. Sundarraj, 2016. "Integrating Time-Preferences into E-Negotiation Systems: A Model, Elicitation Approach and Experimental Implications," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 1137-1167, November.
    19. Taisuke Imai & Tom A Rutter & Colin F Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1788-1814.
    20. Ian Crawford, 2007. "A nonparametric analysis of habits models," CeMMAP working papers CWP30/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioral political economy; voting; misinformation; Dunning-Kruger effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Hoffmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/okokudk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.