IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jrp/jrpwrp/2016-007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Fritsch

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Alina Sorgner

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Michael Wyrwich

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Evguenii Zazdravnykh

    (National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Saint-Petersburg)

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence of entrepreneurship in the region of Kaliningrad between 1925 and 2010. During this time period the area experienced a number of extremely disruptive shocks including; devastation caused by World War II, a nearly complete replacement of the native German population by Soviets, and 45 years under an anti- entrepreneurial socialist economic regime followed by a shock-type transition to a market economy. Nevertheless, we find a surprisingly high level of persistence of industry-specific self-employment rates in the districts of the Kaliningrad region. Our analysis suggests that persistence of entrepreneurship is higher in regions with a history of successful entrepreneurship. That is, in regions where a specific industry was particularly efficient and entrepreneurial activity was especially pronounced.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    • Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2016-007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://oweb.b67.uni-jena.de/Papers/jerp2016/wp_2016_007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2014. "The two greatest. Great recession vs. great moderation," Working Papers 1423, Banco de España.
    2. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The effect of entrepreneurship on economic development—an empirical analysis using regional entrepreneurship culture," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 157-189.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio," NBER Working Papers 20423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    7. Michael Wyrwich, 2012. "Regional Entrepreneurial Heritage in a Socialist and a Postsocialist Economy," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 88(4), pages 423-445, October.
    8. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    9. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    10. Glocker, Daniela & Sturm, Daniel, 2014. "War-Time Destruction and the Persistence of Economic Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100282, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    12. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    13. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    14. Zoltán J. Ács & Pontus Braunerhjelm & David B. Audretsch & Bo Carlsson, 2015. "The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship," Chapters, in: Global Entrepreneurship, Institutions and Incentives, chapter 7, pages 129-144, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    17. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    18. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    19. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    20. Grosfeld, Irena & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2015. "Cultural vs. economic legacies of empires: Evidence from the partition of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-75.
    21. Parker,Simon C., 2009. "The Economics of Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521728355, March.
    22. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01157572 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    24. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 396-422, June.
    25. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    26. Georgios Fotopoulos, 2014. "On the spatial stickiness of UK new firm formation rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 651-679.
    27. Ms. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 1997/177, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Martin Andersson & Sierdjan Koster, 2011. "Sources of persistence in regional start-up rates--evidence from Sweden," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 179-201, January.
    29. Martin Obschonka & Michael Stuetzer & Samuel D Gosling & Peter J Rentfrow & Michael E Lamb & Jeff Potter & David B Audretsch, 2015. "Entrepreneurial Regions: Do Macro-Psychological Cultural Characteristics of Regions Help Solve the “Knowledge Paradox” of Economics?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    30. Michael Fritsch & Elisabeth Bublitz & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich, 2014. "How much of a socialist legacy? The re-emergence of entrepreneurship in the East German transformation to a market economy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 427-446, August.
    31. Edward L. Glaeser & Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 498-520, May.
    32. Catherine Armington & Zoltan J. Acs, 2008. "The Determinants of Regional Variation in New Firm Formation," Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy, chapter 18, pages 224-243, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    33. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    34. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    35. Petra Gerlach, 2011. "The global output gap: measurement issues and regional disparities," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    36. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    37. Michal Andrle, 2013. "What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables," IMF Working Papers 2013/105, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    39. Obschonka, Martin & Stuetzer, Michael & Gosling, Samuel D. & Rentfrow, Peter J. & Lamb, Michael E. & Potter, Jeff & Audretsch, David B., 2015. "Entrepreneurial Regions: Do Macro-psychological Cultural Characteristics of Regions help solve the “Knowledge Paradox” of Economics?," MPRA Paper 65323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Chang‐Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2014. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 253-266, March.
    42. Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2013/145, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Papell David H. & Prodan Ruxandra, 2012. "The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, October.
    44. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2014. "The Long Persistence of Regional Levels of Entrepreneurship: Germany, 1925-2005," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 955-973, June.
    45. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    46. Parker,Simon C., 2009. "The Economics of Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899604, March.
    47. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    48. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.
    49. Jacques R. Artus, 1977. "Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78 (Estimation du potentiel de production relative au secteur manufacturier de huit pays industriels, 1955-78) (Medic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 1-35, March.
    50. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bijedić, Teita & Butkowski, Olivier K. & Kay, Rosemarie & Suprinovič, Olga, 2020. "Bestimmungsfaktoren des regionalen Gründungsgeschehens - eine Machbarkeitsstudie," IfM-Materialien 280, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    2. Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    3. Fritsch, Michael & Obschonka, Martin & Wahl, Fabian & Wyrwich, Michael, 2020. "The deep imprint of Roman sandals: Evidence of long-lasting effects of Roman rule on personality, economic performance, and well-being in Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 05-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. Uwe Cantner & James A. Cunningham & Erik E. Lehmann & Matthias Menter, 2021. "Entrepreneurial ecosystems: a dynamic lifecycle model," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 407-423, June.
    5. Zemtsov, S. & Tsareva, Y., 2018. "Entrepreneurial Activity in the Russian Regions: How Spatial and Temporal Effects Determine the Development of Small Business," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 145-165.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich & Martin Obschonka, 2018. "Historical Roots of Entrepreneurial Culture and Innovation Activity - An Analysis for German Regions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "Persistence of Regional Entrepreneurship: Causes, Effects, and Directions for Future Research," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-003, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Stuetzer, Michael & Obschonka, Martin & Audretsch, David B. & Wyrwich, Michael & Rentfrow, Peter J. & Coombes, Mike & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh & Satchell, Max, 2016. "Industry structure, entrepreneurship, and culture: An empirical analysis using historical coalfields," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 52-72.
    5. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
    6. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2016. "Does persistence in start-up activity reflect persistence in social capital?," Chapters, in: Hans Westlund & Johan P. Larsson (ed.), Handbook of Social Capital and Regional Development, chapter 4, pages 82-107, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Michael Wyrwich, 2014. "Ready, set, go! Why are some regions entrepreneurial jump starters?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 487-513, September.
    8. Michael Fritsch & Korneliusz Pylak & Michael Wyrwich, 2022. "Historical roots of entrepreneurship in different regional contexts—the case of Poland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 397-412, June.
    9. Michael Stuetzer & David B. Audretsch & Martin Obschonka & Samuel D. Gosling & Peter J. Rentfrow & Jeff Potter, 2018. "Entrepreneurship culture, knowledge spillovers and the growth of regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 608-618, May.
    10. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    11. Funke, Manuel & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 227-260.
    12. Alfredo Monte & Sara Moccia & Luca Pennacchio, 2022. "Regional entrepreneurship and innovation: historical roots and the impact on the growth of regions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 451-473, January.
    13. Bijedić, Teita & Butkowski, Olivier K. & Kay, Rosemarie & Suprinovič, Olga, 2020. "Bestimmungsfaktoren des regionalen Gründungsgeschehens - eine Machbarkeitsstudie," IfM-Materialien 280, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    14. Michael Wyrwich & Michael Stuetzer & Rolf Sternberg, 2016. "Entrepreneurial role models, fear of failure, and institutional approval of entrepreneurship: a tale of two regions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 467-492, March.
    15. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    16. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    17. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    18. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    19. Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Pijnenburg, Katharina, 2013. "Business Cycles, Unemployment and Entrepreneurial Entry: Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 7852, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entrepreneurship; regional culture; persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • P5 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2016-007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Pasche (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jenecon.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.