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Click'n'Roll: No Evidence of Illusion of Control

Author

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  • Filippin, Antonio

    (University of Milan)

  • Crosetto, Paolo

    (Université de Grenoble)

Abstract

Evidence of Illusion of Control – the fact that people believe to have control over pure chance events – is a recurrent finding in experimental psychology. Results in economics find instead little to no support. In this paper we test whether this dissonant result across disciplines is due to the fact that economists have implemented only one form of illusory control. We identify and separately tests in an incentive-compatible design two types of control: a) over the resolution of uncertainty, as usually done in the economics literature, and b) over the choice of the lottery, as sometimes done in the psychology literature but without monetary payoffs. Results show no evidence of illusion of control, neither on choices nor on beliefs about the likelihood of winning, thus supporting the hypotheses that incentives crowd out illusion of control.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippin, Antonio & Crosetto, Paolo, 2015. "Click'n'Roll: No Evidence of Illusion of Control," IZA Discussion Papers 9030, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2017. "The Sound of Others: Surprising Evidence of Conformist Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1038-1051, April.
    2. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2013. "The “bomb” risk elicitation task," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 31-65, August.
    3. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
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    5. Armin Falk & Andrea Ichino, 2006. "Clean Evidence on Peer Effects," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 39-58, January.
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    7. Gino, Francesca & Sharek, Zachariah & Moore, Don A., 2011. "Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 104-114, March.
    8. King Li, 2011. "Preference towards control in risk taking: Control, no control, or randomize?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 39-63, August.
    9. Uri Gneezy & Jan Potters, 1997. "An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 631-645.
    10. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2017. "The Sound of Others: Surprising Evidence of Conformist Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1038-1051, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illusion of Control; experiment; risk elicitation; hypothetical bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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